With a grim expression and a somber tone of voice Canadian PM Mark Carney spoke at Davos . He spoke not just to the room of elites in front of him but to civilian populations across the world. The conversations that have undoubtedly been taking place behind closed doors for years were now made public: “Let me be clear. We are in a rupture, not a transition. Over the past two decades a series of crises in finance, health, energy and geopolitics have laid bare the risks of extr

Northern Europe’s security centre of gravity has moved north and east since 2022: the Baltic Sea, the GIUK gap , the Norwegian Sea, and Arctic approaches now define the front edge of deterrence and reinforcement. In this setting, Ukraine should be analysed less as the object of Northern policy and more as the catalyst that is reshaping it. Two overlapping mini-laterals, NB8  and JEF , offer a pragmatic architecture, one optimised for political alignment and signalling, the ot

International sanctions often hurl target states into a form of survival mode. Since invading Ukraine, Russia has faced increasing isolation from Western nations . This isolation has extended beyond politics and economics into the world of international sport. Russian teams and officials have been expelled or suspended from numerous international sporting federations, significantly reducing the country’s presence on the global sporting stage. The 2024 Paris Olympic Games saw

From a distance it is hard to see why Vladimir Putin did not accept December’s peace plan for the Ukraine war, to prevent it entering its fourth year. The deal would have forced Ukraine to secede far more territory to Russia than the actual inroads made. Ukraine would have to hold elections, be forbidden from joining NATO, and reduce the size of its army. These were all crucial war aims for Russia before the beginning of the ‘special military operation,’ so it is mystifying

The Balkan Legacy  Winston Churchill supposedly posited that the Balkans produced far too much history for it to be accurately consumed, largely echoing the typical “orientalism” rhetoric that Edward Said aptly pronounced as the ignorance many in the West have of anything the wrong side of Rome. Once more, Western nations have made a deep folly in not fully appreciating the precariousness of the peace following the Homeland War of the 1990s  in the former Yugoslavia. Througho

The Republic of Moldova, a small country situated between the EU and Russia, has long been vulnerable because of its heavy reliance on Russian-controlled energy infrastructure. The war in Ukraine and the 2025 Russian gas cutoff exposed this serious vulnerability. Responding to these challenges, the pro-EU Moldovan government has taken strong measures towards energy diversification and integration into the EU energy system. This article examines how Moldova is reducing its rel

On the 5th of December Donald Trump’s second National Security strategy was released to little fanfare, nevertheless precipitating great global alarm, not least in Europe, as it appears to promote an archaic vision of a world once again carved up for consumption by superpowers.  This National Security Strategy is very streamlined, at only 29 pages, compared to  Trump’s 55-page 2017 equivalent. It even describes these old strategies as ‘ bloated and unfocused.’  This reflects

As the Prime Minister looks to inaugurate a “new era” in his country’s relationship with Europe , his task is not only to repair pre-existing bonds, but also to open new avenues that support his ambitions for greater British influence abroad and economic growth at home. In this context, the South Caucasus – comprising Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia – deserves far more attention than it has traditionally received in Westminster.   While famously chequered, the UK’s relationsh

On the thirteenth anniversary of the Syrian Revolution, which began in March 2011, Syrian politics entered a new era with the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024. Following the completion of the Syrian Revolution with the overthrow of Assad, at the end of the first year (December 2025), the new Sunni central authority established in Damascus by the Transitional Government led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is attempting to shape the country's future. While the Transi

Siniša Karan has been declared the winner of the recent snap elections  in Republika Srpska, after long-standing leader Milorad Dodik was removed from office back in August. Dodik attempted to seriously undermine the Dayton Accords by denying rulings  from the High Representative, Christian Schmidt, which is a direct violation of the negotiated peace. Under a dual agreement ,   Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) has enjoyed its autonomy  alongside Republika Srpska, until recently t

When a conflict is in its twilight hours, its final death throes often manifest as an exponentially rapid alteration in at least one of its combatant’s positions, be they military or diplomatic. In the case of the largest and bloodiest war continental Europe has seen since the Second World War, we can now see clear evidence of the latter - and not from the Ukrainian camp. The culminating peace proposals from a weekend of breakneck cross-Atlantic detente-by-press-communique wi

Two peace proposals now frame the future of Ukraine . Washington's draft plan focuses on concessions and neutrality, while Brussels has unveiled a new framework built around the principle that "borders cannot be changed by force" . At first glance, they seem to represent different strategies. In reality, they reflect two competing ways the world has thought about security for nearly a century. The first is universalism, the idea that every state, large or small, enjoys the sa

Finland and Lithuania are about to send a young man to his death. The 21-year-old in question is Daniil Mukhametov , who has fled Russia to avoid forced military service. Pursued by Russian police, he bought a ticket on the Kaliningrad train that transits Lithuania, used keys purchased online to open a carriage, and jumped from a moving train. He then travelled via Tallinn to Finland, where he sought asylum. Now he is at risk of deportation.  It is almost impossible to believ

October 4 th  saw a landslide victory for the Georgian Dream Party, securing them sixty-four out of sixty-four districts on only forty-one percent voter turnout, signalling significant corruption at work.  Over the summer, Tbilisi has been rocked by protests, but in the wake of last year's October election, it is apparent that the Georgian Dream is showing little tolerance for dissenting opposition. Strong economic performance, with GDP rising 7.9 percent  this past year, has

Though I cannot recall quite how, I recently stumbled across a fascinating POLITICO  article by former Harvard lecturer John F. Muller titled “ Halloween Is More Political Than You Think ”. It discusses trick-or-treating in America, focusing specifically on Milwaukee, and the surprising observations Halloween brings to the table in discussions on both racial and class divisions. Muller explores how poor, inner-city ethnic minorities often travel to affluent white suburbs duri

Introduction In a country positioned at the crossroads of East and West, the battle for hearts and minds is increasingly fought not on the battlefield, but in the media. Once the frontrunner of the so-called “Associated Trio,” Georgia now finds itself among the most vulnerable to foreign information manipulation and interference (FIMI) and broader information disorders, as media freedom and freedom of speech face growing threats. Amid ongoing protests, political unrest, and s

Czech billionaire turned populist politician and former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš has won a plurality in this month's elections  in the central European country, defeating incumbent Prime Minister Petr Fiala's centrist coalition and falling 20 seats short of an overall majority. Nicknamed the ‘Czech Trump’, Babiš made his return on the back of the Czech Republic's economic woes.  The central European state had seen one of the worst inflation rates  in Europe and had borne t

In the shadows, Putin’s intelligence services have been leaving civilian casualties, sabotaged infrastructure, burnt out buildings and downed planes in their wake for over three years. A ravaged Europe lies almost completely unresponsive. For sixty heartstopping minutes, a full-to-capacity Falcon 900LX jet circles above Bulgaria in a state of panic. The pilots and security detail are frantically scrambling over paper maps and charts, desperate to plot a safe route to the grou

Articles four and five  of the North Atlantic Treaty have been on every European leader’s lips this past week, as Russian drones were...

The EU should seize the momentum. The results of Moldova’s parliamentary elections demonstrate a decisive political shift. Pro-Russian...