Armenia Turns Its Back On Moscow – But For How Long?

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Armenia was long considered Russia’s most obedient and reliable partner in the South Caucasus. While independent Azerbaijan fuelled its economy with oil-generated wealth, and Georgia — following the Rose Revolution in 2003 — expressed unwavering eagerness to join the European Union and NATO, Armenia remained in Russia’s shadow. After joining the Collective Security Treaty Organisation in 1994, Armenia sent a clear message to the West: it was choosing to remain under the protection of its “Big Brother” to maintain strong military positions during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. As a landlocked country, Armenia had little choice but to seek support from Russia, which did help it gain momentum in the conflict. However, when countries rely heavily on external powers for military equipment, soldier training, and the production of essential goods, they often end up handing over significant influence to those powers. 

This was the case in Armenia, where Russia gradually extended its control over both the country's internal and external affairs, effectively turning it into a puppet state. Relations between the two countries changed drastically when Pashinyan, a reformist prime minister, came to power, promising a better future for all Armenians. It was no coincidence that his first official state visit was to Georgia. The following year, the Armenian delegation refrained from voting against the UN resolution on internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Georgia, and for the first time, in 2025, Armenia eventually voted in favour.

Armenia’s gradual political shift did not go unnoticed by Russia, but it was not initially seen as a serious geopolitical manoeuvre. The country's awakening continued when it faced another war with Azerbaijan—a nation that had invested heavily in its defence and, together with its main ally, Turkey, significantly enhanced its military capabilities.

Unlike its previous gains, Armenia lost the war, and thousands of Armenians were forced to flee the Nagorno-Karabakh region. While Western nations invited both sides to engage in peace talks, Russia remained notably silent, leaving Armenia without the support of its traditional security guarantor. Preoccupied with its ongoing full-scale war in Ukraine, Russia simply lacked the capacity to provide military assistance.

Armenia’s defeat pushed the government to pursue peace negotiations with Azerbaijan and reconsider its diplomatic ties with Turkey—all of which unfolded without Russia’s involvement. In the past, Russia always had a seat at the table in matters concerning Armenia’s internal and external affairs. For the first time in history, Armenia held joint military drills with the U.S.—a move that drew criticism from Moscow—and has recently expressed growing interest in closer ties with Europe.

While many view Armenia’s drastic political changes positively, there remains significant uncertainty about how long these changes will last. Being a landlocked country encircled by nations with complex diplomatic ties, Armenia faces real challenges. Can it withstand pressure from Russia, which will surely impact the country's energy supply and food prices? 

Can Armenia successfully navigate a balanced path between the West and Russia, or will it be forced to take sides—and at what cost?

The future of the South Caucasus, much like the peaceful future of Europe, depends on Ukraine winning the war against Russia. A weakened Russia would give countries like Armenia and Georgia a real chance to finally step out from under Moscow’s shadow and rejoin the European family—a place where they truly belong.

Illustration: Will Allen/Europinion