America Last - How Trump Misunderstands the World

With Trump’s 100th day in office fast approaching, the tenets of MAGA foreign policy 2.0 are still being crafted. Political soothsayers remain divided on whether these will involve a withdrawal from the world, or an attempt to emulate 19th century imperialism. Either prospect is terrifying - and ludicrous. After all, why would an American administration upend the post-1945 liberal world order it worked so hard to build? And yet, all signs point to the current occupant of the White House trying to do just that. How far he is prepared to go with threats to make Canada the “51st state” and seize Greenland, Gaza and the Panama Canal, is yet to be seen. Whatever happens, Trump is clearly eroding America’s global reputation - perhaps permanently. 

If there ever was an example of potentially irreversible damage done to US security relations, it would be Trump’s response to Ukraine. Demanding that Kyiv exchange its mineral wealth for continued support has turned America from benefactor to bully in the eyes of many Europeans. MAGA supporters may justify this as perfectly fair; after all, data suggests that at least $100 billion has been provided to Ukraine since the start of the war. Yet, this swift reversal on Ukraine represents much more than petty score-settling. It symbolises the shattering of the once unquestioned concept of America being the defender of the free world. 

Despite this geopolitical shock, Europe is already moving on. Pioneered by France and the UK, the pro-Ukraine ‘coalition of the willing’ signals just how quickly it is preparing for a future without the US as a reliable partner. Yet, whilst Trump has shown indifference to European security, reflected most acutely in his threats to exit NATO, he has repeatedly accused it of acting as a foe. Indeed, the idea of a Europe-US rivalry has attracted increased commentary. France has even suggested that Europe chart a path of “strategic autonomy” away from Washington. In the end, Trump’s abandonment of the Old Continent may well backfire on America; acting as a catalyst for further integration and forging a Europe capable enough to truly rival its power. 

In our fast-changing, multipolar world, America is ever-more reliant on its allies to secure its superpower status. The Arctic, yet another flashpoint, will be one such place where this is put to the test. Putin, like Trump, has identified the region as possessing great economic and military potential. A so-called Arctic Silk Road would also see Russia controlling lucrative shipping lanes in its future warmer seas. This, together with joint Russo-Sino military exercises in the region, poses a direct threat to US hegemony. However, rather than addressing these developments by deepening ties with key Arctic partners Canada and Greenland, Washington has isolated itself by openly deriding their sovereignty and even suggesting it will occupy them. 

In both cases, Europe is likely to rally behind these nations, as it has with Ukraine. A future independent Greenland may also pursue EU membership as an alternative to closer ties with the US. It could also side with Canada and fellow Arctic Council member, Norway, on preventing the North-West Passage and Transpolar Sea Route from becoming international waters, effectively limiting US influence in the high north. Trump’s attempts to normalise relations with Moscow, in contrast to its tariff policy on Beijing, would suggest it doesn’t view Russia as a direct adversary in the same way it does China and Iran. This would be rapidly challenged in the Arctic, whereupon America will learn that only by cooperating with Europe and Canada can the US maintain its favourable position in the region. 

As with Europe, Trump’s transactional and isolationist nature has been on full display in the Asia-Pacific. His rhetoric against Taiwan, including a series of crushing tariffs and threats to withdraw American support for its long-term defence, represents yet more miscalculations which the US will have to live with further down the line. Unlike with Ukraine and Europe however, Taiwan lacks strong regional or even global support outside of America. With only 12 countries recognising it as a country in its own right, its fate would inevitably be sealed if Trump really were to pull the plug. He may even welcome a Chinese invasion of the island; hoping the damage wrought on its microchip industry might somehow benefit the US. Observing Trump’s own lacklustre response to Russian aggression, China may well calculate the risk to be worth taking. Though the US has no formal defence pact with Taiwan, failing to come to Taipei’s aid despite its long-standing support would reverberate across America’s network of allies – potentially fracturing global trust in the US irreparably. 

Whether Trump is able to secure his coveted third term in office or not, ‘America First’ is here to stay. Though fatigue at the US’s role as ‘the world’s policeman’ had long been brewing, Trump raised this sentiment to national policy. It will be hard to put the genie back in the bottle. Possibly the greatest irony is that the US’s global involvement is America First in its purest form. Indeed, Trump and the MAGA movement are themselves a result of America failing to understand it cannot remain the sole superpower in the multipolar 21st century by acting unilaterally. If it is able to repair its alliance network, the US’s power and global influence will remain secure. With Trump at the helm however, America may well have neither. 

Image: Wikimedia Commons/Trump White House (Joyce N. Boghosian)

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