Freedom at a Price: Alexander Lukashenko’s Attempt at Diplomacy

In June 2025, on the wrong side of the Belarussian-Lithuanian border, a bus carrying fourteen hooded prisoners opened its doors to John Coale, Special Envoy to Ukraine from the Trump Administration. Certainly not what the former litigator is accustomed to, but Coale had nonetheless been sent on a special mission from Washington with the hope of mending a firm relationship over toasts of vodka with Europe’s last dictator, Alexander Lukashenko. Many may, recalling the autocracy tribute act presently thriving in Washington, scratch their heads at this scenario. They may also be perplexed by remembering the very real terror that was rained down upon the Belarusian people after the 2020 presidential elections, including the arrest of the famed (and now released) opposition voice, Siarhei Tsikhanouski. In my view, this prisoner release was orchestrated by the two leaders, seeking to furnish their limelights with a diplomatic glow. 

A significant leader among the silenced voices across Russia and Belarus, Siarhei’s wife, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, has been in political exile since the 2020 elections after calling for new elections following Lukashenko’s 80% win. As Siarhei was barred from running for political office in 2020, Tsikhanouskaya displayed unwavering tenacity in the face of the very real danger of running for presidential candidacy against Lukashenko. During her exile from the Belarusian political scene, Tsikhanouskaya has wasted no time in planning and envisioning a New Belarus, which is detailed on her exhaustive website. An avid critic of the Lukashenko regime, she has long criticised the government's mission to suppress democratic freedoms, namely the internment of journalists. Tsikhanouskaya’s vision for Belarus would integrate the Eastern European country further into the European Union community, while also adopting many democratic freedoms, including free press, civic education, activism, and accessible healthcare.

Freedom House’s democracy and political liberties indices illuminate the political intricacies of Belarus. Taking a look at political well-being, the country scores 0/4 for political accessibility for the general population to participate in free and fair elections. As shown by the punishment laid down upon Sviatlana and Siarhei, the quite menacing forces of Lukashenko have no tolerance for opposition to the regime. This has not only posed a problem for activists, but also for the European Union in its aim to draw Belarus further away from Russia. The internet has been an immense resource for those with access to a VPN; however, the freedom of information online is still difficult to access due to ongoing security supervision. As for the United States, Donald Trump has focused his efforts, similarly to Lukashenko, on silencing opposing voices, such as universities, because of their ability to freely express dissent against a leader they deem an authoritarian. While diplomacy abroad may display the illusion of sound foreign policy, it is a deal between two businessmen who are acting solely in self-interest.

The recent batch of releases from the Belarusian prison system has been a welcome relief to many, such as the Tsikhanouski family, but it leaves many questions to be answered as to the real aim of this deal. Siarhei and Svetlana have both been quoted in urging the continual release of prisoners from Lukashenko and Trump following the mission of John Coal, although Mrs. Tsikhanouskaya has made it clear that Lukashenko cannot be trusted. I can't foresee a real positive transformation in Belarus while Lukashenko still grips power, as he has repeatedly violated international law and shown his fealty to Moscow. Much like Trump, Lukashenko has historically conceded to a deal once his strong-man persona has failed publicly, and this recent negotiation is a very concrete example of that. The alterations to the status quo may strike some as tangible progress for the globe, but I am sceptical due to the cosmetic nature of the diplomacy entangled in this case. In a sound democracy, the citizenry should not have to rely on certain leaders as being the only ones who can generate deals. It is certainly not a favour to the people of Belarus or the United States to have two leaders who only want to deal with each other simply because they share the same autocratic zeal.

Assessing the real cost of Lukashenko’s rule, weighing the pros and cons of dealing with a dictator, leaves a bitter taste in one’s mouth. The people of Belarus deserve far better than to be stuck between two power-hungry buffoons in Moscow and Washington. It is absolutely in Europe’s best interest to support Mrs. Tsikhanouskaya in any way they can, as she has proven to be an invaluable force against the iron fist of Lukashenko. As the Kyiv Independent accurately highlighted, Lukashenko will doubtless use the releases as displays of his goodwill with a view to attaining lessened sanctions against his regime. Although Trump may appear to be making real diplomatic progress, his dizzying antics with Putin and his obstruction of rights in the United States display his tremendously ineffectual leadership. I hope the well-deserved release of Siarhei Tsikhanouski proves to be the beginning of many to be released from political arrest, and the culmination of a real democratic force against Lukashenko in the not-so-distant future.

Illustration by Will Allen/Europinion