Russian Lives Are Dearer To Its Treasury Than To The Kremlin

From a distance it is hard to see why Vladimir Putin did not accept December’s peace plan for the Ukraine war, to prevent it entering its fourth year. The deal would have forced Ukraine to secede far more territory to Russia than the actual inroads made. Ukraine would have to hold elections, be forbidden from joining NATO, and reduce the size of its army. These were all crucial war aims for Russia before the beginning of the ‘special military operation,’ so it is mystifying that Putin has chosen to continue the war, considering the toll it has taken on his country. 

It is hard to know how many Russian lives have been lost in this conflict, but Ukrainian estimates suggest that nearly 420,000 Russian soldiers have been wounded or killed, in exchange for control of only 0.8% of Ukraine’s territory as we enter the fourth year of this war, a far cry from the swift victory Putin expected. The situation on the front line for Russian soldiers is even worse than these statistics make it sound. One report even suggests that the life cycle for a new Russian recruit in Ukraine is only 12 days long. So much money has been plunged into defence that Putin can no longer continue to offer such high financial incentives to soldiers as he has before, and perhaps it is no coincidence that war desertions doubled to 70,000 in 2025 - an extraordinary 10% of the force in Ukraine. Clearly, morale in the Russian army is on the floor. Hardly surprising, with Putin expecting a fast victory and turning to a ‘wait and win’ approach when that did not materialise, leaving Russians and Ukrainians alike wondering how much longer the violence will continue. 

But these personnel problems have a greater impact on Russia than just harming their war effort, Russia is facing major demographic problems, particularly in their most productive regions. Per capita, major oil and gas producing regions such as Western Siberia and the Volga-Ural Basin are those which are suffering the most losses in this war, depleting the workforce - 73% of Russian businesses are understaffed - in a country which would conservatively need 550,000 migrants to come in every year to stop the population from shrinking. Meanwhile Putin continues to pour Russian workers into the war effort and further restrict migration despite Russia desperately crying out for it. 

This is seriously straining Russia’s ability to produce and compete on the global scale, 2025 saw Russia’s worst harvest since 2008. Russia’s grain and fertiliser production is perhaps its greatest geopolitical tool, it is so crucial to world food security that it was spared by Western sanctions following the 2022 invasion. The bad harvest can in many ways be blamed on climate change, following unusually cold spring frosts and summer heat so extreme that it saw Rostov declare a state of emergency. Perhaps unsurprisingly for somebody who has built Russia’s economy on oil and gas exports, Putin has consistently dismissed climate change, even welcoming it, claiming that it might make Russia’s North more fertile. 

But these oil and gas exports are no longer as reliable as they used to be, with key partners reducing their trade, often due to President Trump’s threats. For instance India will now only buy 600,000 barrels of oil per day as opposed to the nearly 2 million a day of recent months. This is a serious problem as these constitute more than 20% of Russian GDP, and income in these sectors is down 27% year-on-year. Ending the war would certainly be a relief for the Russian economy, but the problems caused by the war will live on perhaps longer than Putin himself. 

Putin’s stubbornness continues to damage the Russian people, who have felt the economic strain of the war much longer than those running it, but with all sectors apart from defence contracting in 2025, surely Putin and his friends will begin to take notice. With defence spending set to fall by 7% this year, Russia’s chances of outright victory are only falling the longer the war goes on, the death toll is becoming intolerable for Russia, and most Russians do now support engaging with peace talks, with Ukraine’s remarkable resolve showing little sign of creaking.

Putin is a self-professed expert in Russian history and patriot, he is obsessed with the age-old idea that Russia should be a great power, and his war in Ukraine is perhaps his final attempt to prove this to the world. But this supposed great power can no longer handle this war, its economy is fighting for its life and Putin’s people are suffering, but we have seen time and time again that Putin is willing to sacrifice his people for Russia’s image. Everything indicates that he should come to the negotiating table, but his patriotism will not allow him, meaning more and more Russians will die. 

Image: Flickr/Tom Erickson

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