Frozen in Crisis: Transnistria's Energy Standoff

The cessation of Russian natural gas supplies to Transnistria has precipitated a severe energy crisis, leading to the suspension of nearly all industrial operations and leaving hundreds of thousands of residents without heating amid freezing winter temperatures.

Transnistria, a predominantly Russian-speaking region with approximately 450,000 inhabitants, unilaterally declared independence from Moldova in the early 1990s following the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Despite lacking international recognition,  it has maintained de facto independence in a frozen conflict, that is peace without settlement, with political, military and economic support from Russia, including the stationing of approximately 1,500 Russian troops and the provision of free natural gas. This arrangement has been pivotal for Transnistria's economy and energy needs, enabling it to operate industries and supply electricity to Moldova at minimal costs, as well as perpetuating its political quasi-independence.

On 1 January 2025, Ukraine terminated the transit of Russian natural gas through its territory, following the expiration of a five-year agreement and in the context of ongoing hostilities with Russia. This decision effectively halted Russian gas deliveries to Transnistria. The immediate impact was profound. Households lost central heating and hot water, and industrial enterprises, except those essential for food production, were compelled to cease operations. Sergei Obolonik, Transnistria's First Deputy Prime Minister, cautioned that prolonged disruptions could lead to "irreversible changes," rendering enterprises incapable of resuming operations.

In response to the crisis, Moldovan authorities, through companies such as Moldovagaz and Energocom, extended offers to assist Transnistria in procuring natural gas from European markets. This assistance included technical and commercial support to facilitate purchases at prevailing market prices. However, Transnistrian authorities, specifically the region's gas company, Tiraspoltransgaz, declined these offers. They cited the higher costs of European gas compared to previous Russian supplies and expressed optimism that Gazprom would resume deliveries under existing contracts valid until 2026.

Leaked communications obtained by POLITICO reveal that Transnistrian officials were presented with detailed proposals from Chisinau to secure alternative gas supplies, emphasising the urgency given the deteriorating humanitarian conditions. Despite these entreaties, Transnistrian leadership remained steadfast in their refusal. Aura Sabadus, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), said it was “extraordinary that given the gravity of the crisis, where schools and kindergartens are shut and people freeze in their homes, the authorities in Tiraspol refuse to accept Moldova’s help.” However, Transnistria rejects the notion it is a part of Moldova, maintaining its own de facto independence, thus partially explaining a reluctance to rely on Moldovan assistance.

Analysts suggest that this stance is influenced by several factors. Firstly, accepting gas from European sources, facilitated by Moldova, could be perceived as Tiraspol's shift away from Moscow's influence, threatening Transnistria's longstanding political alignment with Russia. Secondly, the cost of European gas is significantly higher than the subsidised rates previously enjoyed under Russian provisions. Transnistrian authorities may be concerned about the economic burden this would impose on their already fragile economy. Ultimately, there appears to be an anticipation that Russia will intervene to restore gas supplies, either through diplomatic negotiations or alternative logistical arrangements, reinforcing Transnistria's reliance on Russian patronage.

The refusal to secure alternative gas supplies has dire consequences for the residents of Transnistria. With temperatures plummeting below freezing, the lack of heating poses significant health risks, particularly for vulnerable populations such as the elderly and children. Authorities have advised residents to utilise electric heaters and insulate their homes, but these measures are insufficient for prolonged exposure to cold.

The energy crisis in Transnistria has broader implications for Moldova and the region. Moldova, which has been striving to reduce its energy dependence on Transnistrian sources and integrate more closely with European energy markets, faces challenges in balancing humanitarian concerns with political realities. Prime Minister Dorin Recean characterised the situation as a security crisis, suggesting that Russia's actions aim to destabilise Moldova and facilitate the return of pro-Russian forces to power. 

Image: Alex Houque/Unsplash

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