Beating the ‘Bosnian Bear’: Republika Srpska and the Nationalism Affair

Siniša Karan has been declared the winner of the recent snap elections in Republika Srpska, after long-standing leader Milorad Dodik was removed from office back in August. Dodik attempted to seriously undermine the Dayton Accords by denying rulings from the High Representative, Christian Schmidt, which is a direct violation of the negotiated peace. Under a dual agreement, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) has enjoyed its autonomy alongside Republika Srpska, until recently tensions have risen largely due to increasing Serb nationalist rhetoric and Dodik’s dream to secede from the agreed-upon territorial decrees. Also known as The Serb Republic, Republika Srpska was the epicentre of tragedy in the 1990s, most notably, the ethnic cleansing of 8,000 Bosniak Muslims by the VRS (Army of Republika Srpska) in the town of Srebrenica. While the Dayton Accords essentially defined the borders of the Serb Republic, they unfortunately failed to build a lasting framework to uphold the peace in 1995, which aimed to create a peaceful multiethnic state. Thus, cue Milorad Dodik and his ultimate plan to create a "Greater Serbia" that disregards the autonomy of Bosniaks and Croats in the region. As Milorad has taken the back seat in public behind Karan, it is frightening to see actions by Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin attempting to undermine the stability of the region by removing sanctions and extending the olive branch to Dodik. Knowing the history of BiH makes these elections all the more startling, as the rhetoric that was uttered before the Bosnian War is eerily similar to the ultranationalist propaganda of Dodik and Karan.

The Union of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) has been the voice of ultranationalist and secessionist sentiment since Dodik took power in 2010. BiH at present retains much of its former multiethnic makeup with a nation of Serbs, Bosniaks, and Croats; essentially spelling out a blend of Orthodoxy, Catholicism, and Islam. Walking the Turkish streets of Mostar, Bosnia and Herzegovina, one must admire the beautiful skyline of minarets and steeples, nestled sweetly in the Neretva River Valley. It is impossible, though, to ignore the echoes of the past in the alleys of rugged cobbles destroyed by bombs, and pockmarked buildings riddled with bullet holes. As I listened to our guide recount the devastation that was wrought in this town during the Bosnian War, I was enlivened to hear his optimism concerning the former Yugoslav states and the future that they could have together through peace. This moment highlighted the nuanced future of Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Croatia, as general optimism clashes with the dark past of the 1990s. Unfortunately, Viktor Orbán has firmly extended his hand in congratulations to the SNSD, proclaiming that he was very much looking forward to their relationship in the near future. As one of the EU’s main antagonists, it is unsurprising to find Orbán, the pro-Russian and anti-democratic brute he is, scouring for more friends in his already dwindling circles of support.

The ethnic lines along which Balkan states are drawn are largely the result of the early 20th-century Balkan Wars and, again, after the fall of the Soviet Union in the 1990s. This circumstance has allowed ultranationalists like Dodik and Serbia’s leader, Aleksandar Vučić, to construct their entire support base along ethnic lines, which has fanned the flames of ethnic conflict. While support from the European Union is a direct ticket to immediate funding and competitive markets, Vučić and Dodik walk an exceptionally fine line that all authoritarians do, aiming to remain nationalists while also avoiding shutting the door with Putin behind them. It should be noted as well that Serbia’s relationship with the Kremlin solidifies it among the other anti-Ukraine bloc states, namely Hungary and Slovakia. These EU member states are knowingly undermining the strength of the European Union and NATO by aiding Putin in his hybrid warfare in Eastern Europe and the Balkans. The Atlantic Council’s report on the Balkans suggests that NATO and EU states need to reinforce the region to prevent further attempts to undermine democracy in strained situations such as this one. I must concur with the conclusions of this report, as the stability of Bosnia and Herzegovina alongside Republika Srpska requires expedited EU state accession to shield against the corruption of Vučić and Orbán through diplomacy. 

Branko Blanusa, presidential candidate for the opposition SDS party, was the hope of many on election day, tallying in at 47.8% of the vote with 93% of the votes counted. Finding irregularities at some polling sites has raised questions about the election results' legitimacy, prompting further investigation by authorities. The rising tide of opposition against strongmen like Dodik and Karan raises some optimism for a movement towards progressive political reform in the coming year, with more elections on the horizon. The increasing prosperity of BiH and its tragic past should act as a bulwark against the autocratic feudalism that the Kremlin proffers. The cultural memory of the Soviet Union alone should be a robust reminder of rule from Moscow. The fallow draw of authoritarianism should remain buried in the past, but sadly, the increasing polarity of global politics has eased authoritarian sympathy among the ideological and far right. The encouragement of Blanusa for fair elections that will improve the peace of Republika Srpska should be a rallying call for peace among these entities. It is possible to improve upon cooperation rather than rebuilding from war. We do not have to follow the cycle of the region’s tumultuous national history. The Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina can remain a magnificent and pleasant paradise at peace.

The continuation of Putin’s hybrid warfare in the Balkans perfectly highlights the importance of supporting Ukraine in its defence against waves of Russian and North Korean mobilised troops. Dodik and Karan symbolise further support for Putin and the continued spread of non-democratic politicians in already fragile countries that teeter on the edge of autocracy. The EU must remain vigilant and active during this time, as ignoring Putin serves only to extend his ability to undermine democracy in Eastern Europe and the Balkans. A union with non-democratic elements could spell further disruption to the effectiveness of the EU. We will certainly continue to see aloofness from Trump’s administration in Europe, so long as no one stoppers his South American military campaign. Further conflict in BiH will be a slippery slope that will test the already questionable NATO and possibly propel more vocal states such as Germany and France to the forefront of halting Putin’s digital march across the continent. Restating the legitimacy of the Dayton Accords would be a great first step, but it will require further infrastructure to ease tensions among this nationalist upswing, and an injection of EU funds could be the right incentive for democratic elements in Bosnia and Herzegovina to defeat Dodik and Karan for good.

Illustration: Will Allen/Europinion