Gorton & Denton Is Where Starmer’s Premiership Will Go To Die

Over the weekend, Keir Starmer had to once again confront a problem in the shape of Andy Burnham. The issue was not really a new one for Starmer. In fact, by this point, talk of Andy Burnham angling for a seat in Parliament to challenge the Prime Minister has become a kind of political groundhog day. What was new this time was the fact that the problem before Starmer was no longer a hypothetical one, and Andy Burnham was - after months of speculation - attempting to make a move back to Westminster through Gorton and Denton. After the whiplash events of the weekend, it now looks like the small seat nestled in Manchester will be Starmer’s undoing.

From the outset, the seat of Gorton offered Starmer few good options (if there were any at all). As soon as it became available it was Andy Burnham’s to lose, and when he announced his desire to be the party’s nominee he made the already bad options in front of Starmer much worse. The route Starmer has now opted for is one of maximum pain, for both him and the party he leads. 

Obviously, Starmer and the party machinery he built never wanted Burnham to have a shot at being the Labour candidate for the coming by-election. That much was clear. If they had let him walk the nomination process, Starmer and his clique would have essentially crowned a man who will, at some point, move against their leader and the order he has built. As a result, the party machinery decided to unceremoniously dispatch Britain’s most popular politician and end that speculation early.

Yet, killing Burnham’s ambitions in a party backroom at 11am on a Sunday will not save Starmer. In fact, it will almost certainly speed up the demise of his premiership. Knifing Burnham’s ambitions in his own backyard will unleash an anger from everywhere which Starmer cannot afford. A large chunk of the parliamentary party, already deeply unhappy with the way it is run, will have to sit and watch in horror as the machine in Westminster operates in exactly the way it abhors. It will push more of the membership out of the door, and faster than before. The ensuing factionalism brought about by this thoughtless move will fracture the party inside and out, to the point that authority will slowly seep away from Starmer. More simply, it just makes the party and its leaders look incredibly weak and paranoid, in a moment when they must project strength. 

These events - destabilising enough in isolation - take place before Labour, and the candidate Starmer installs in Burnham’s place, even try to hold onto the seat in a tough by-election. In a scenario where the party loses (which looks increasingly likely without Burnham), the loss of a safe seat in Labour’s heartlands will mean the recriminations will be swift and they will be brutal. There will be a clear through line from barring Andy Burnham’s selection to the loss of the seat, and it will fall at Starmer’s feet. It will be a yet another watershed moment that exposes the weakness of Keir Starmer’s position at the head of his party.  

In a moment where Labour lose Gorton, an opening undoubtedly emerges with which a challenger can move against Starmer - if they so choose. They will place the party’s loss and its wider woes at Starmer’s feet, and there will be nothing the Prime Minister can do to defend himself. What’s more, at that point, it will soon be an argument that just about anyone in the party will listen to, even if it is made by someone like Wes Streeting.

Ironically, there is an argument to be made that Starmer could have used Burnham to strengthen his position in the lead up to what will be brutal local elections - that already pose their own risk to his leadership. He could have selected Burnham personally, watch him win, and then given him a thankless job in cabinet - one which would slowly diminish his shine. In another turn of events, Starmer could have watched on as the man who poses the greatest risk to him loses, delivering Starmer the argument that if Burnham couldn’t win, why roll the dice on anyone else in the party?

It is true that Starmer had few good options to take over the weekend, but he has also played this bad hand terribly. Killing the candidacy of a man often referred to as the ‘King of the North’ was hardly going to stamp authority through a party that is coming undone, and it will only become more apparent over the coming weeks. The move has undoubtedly laid the ground for those in the party who already have the means to move against Starmer, and soon they will be willing. The sequence of events that come next are uncertain, but at the end of it all Starmer will surely lose his grip on power, and Gorton and Denton will be remembered as the place Starmer’s premiership went to die.

Illustration: Will Allen/Europinion