The New Rising Sun: The Ongoing Sino-Japanese Diplomatic Crisis

It seems that the era of repetitive politics is over in Japan. Since her inauguration as the first female Prime Minister of Japan, Sanae Takaichi has set a new path for Japan’s foreign policy. Her first order of action? A diplomatic firestorm with China. In her parliamentary declaration of last November, Takaichi underlined that any attempt of a Chinese blockade against Taiwan will signal an existential threat for Japan, precipitating the need for a collective self-defence strategy. China swiftly retorted that the Japanese Prime Minister’s remarks were entirely erroneous, with Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun accusing Japan of disrespectful acts aiming at igniting a new feud in the Indo-Pacific area. 

“It needs to be pointed out that attempting to grab attention and reap public support by provoking China is malign in nature and very dangerous. We urge the Japanese side to seriously reflect on and repent for its wrongdoing, simply retract Prime Minister Takaichi’s erroneous remarks, stop playing with fire, and avoid going further down the wrong path”. 

However, this diplomatic crisis with China hides a stronger and more necessary agenda for Sanae Takaichi. This has nothing to do with China on paper. Takaichi has decided to embark on a new strategy to save the face of her political party and to win over the millions of Japanese people who feel dissociated with internal Japanese politics in the last decade. The new strategy comprises, essentially, winning over voters via demonstrating strength, and at this point poking a giant seems the only logical approach. Takaichi is playing a risky game, but the nationalist glory she covets may be her only chance at changing Japan’s political landscape.

Her approval ratings tell no lies. By late December it had reached a record high of 75.9%. Though having slipped somewhat of late, Takaichi needs but a fortnight more until her surge beds in on February 8’s snap election. What is most astonishing is her approval rating among those aged 18-29, the so-called generation Z. With an approval rating of 92.4%, Takaichi has blown her predecessor Shigeru Ishiba clean out of the water, laying bare the shame of his failure to maintain popular trust, and concomitant resignation. Takaichi also trades on her status symbol as a paragon of Japan’s (in)famous hard-work ethic, a drive she now directs from the top at conservative policies such as severe immigration constrictions. As for her economic policies, the supplementary fiscal budget for 2025 has been received favourably by taxpayers worn down by decades of stagnation. 

However, all these policies have been overshadowed, for the most part, by the diplomatic crisis with China. One has to assume this is exactly what Takaichi wanted. Anyone familiar with the popular consciousness of Japan understands why this strategy results in a high approval rating across all her policies. Actions speak louder than words. For years, Japan has been stigmatised by incapable politicians, who preferred to speak loudly and act with no backbone. The people reacted negatively, especially the younger generation. Takaichi’s diplomatic feud with China evidences a sea change. Japan no longer feels like a secondary player in the Indo-Pacific area and its people have reacted proudly and positively.

Such a confrontational foreign policy, then, might herald a new age wherein Japan becomes again a nation of resolve and not retreat. On the other hand, it can also be seen as a reckless provocation against a much stronger, economically at least, adversary. Economic self-sabotage is not off the table. China has responded with accusations of historical revisionism being projected by a traditional enemy, underlying the red lines on the issue of Taiwan, which China sees as part of its One China policy. In addition, regarding the comments about an existential threat, China responded that Japan waged war on her neighbours in the past, speaking the same words. The crisis has also metastasised into the UN, with China sending formal letters to the Secretary-General accusing Japan of breaking international laws. In the economic sphere, this diplomatic brawl forced China to ban important imports of seafood from Japan as well as cancelling important cultural events, further straining the relations of the two states.

Yet again, as I said before, I think this feud has nothing to do with China. It was essentially an easy target with legitimate reasons to attack diplomatically. Not to mention that China’s constant military drills, island patrols and provocations against Japan and other Indo-Pacific nations, justifies Takaichi’s actions in the eyes of her people. For a long time Japan has played a self-imposed secondary role in geopolitics. As a trustworthy ally of the U.S. it could only join statements, not make them. It seems now, Japan wants to become a pillar of power in the area. Its people notice and support this. Appeasement has always emboldened aggressors. Now, Takaichi prioritises security over short-term harmony. Experts fear this will result in isolationism for Japan. They are wrong. Takaichi has understood the long-term political game. Support from within needs validation and actions. Peace in the Indo-Pacific can only be achieved by demonstrating strength not submission. In the future, we might see her as a provocateur, as an aggressive “war hawk” as her critics like to call her. But, when there is no alternative can we actually talk about real choices? Japan is reviving itself politically and every revival needs a sacrifice to flourish. If it's short-term diplomatic instability, so be it. In the end, no one should underestimate what it means to have the support of your people in every decision you make. The economy can go up and down, diplomacy can go hot and cold, but winning the people over and rallying them behind you is a security guarantee for your political future and the future path of your country.

Image: Wikimedia Commons/Cabinet Public Affairs Office

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