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Who will build Moldova’s future?
For nearly three decades, an emigration crisis has been quietly hollowing Moldova out from within. There has been no single moment of rupture, only the steady departure of workers, specialists and young families. Over the past ten years, the consequences of this crisis have become increasingly difficult to ignore. Furthermore, the country is not only shrinking, but it’s also ageing: between the 2014 and 2024 censuses, the average age increased from 37.5 to 40.6, while the number of people aged between 15 and 35 decreased by 38.5 per cent. These demographic changes reflect both migration and changes in the population’s age structure. Moldova can align its legislation with European standards and modernise its institutions. However, sustaining these achievements will be much harder if its population continues to shrink and age.
Moldova’s reforms depend on people who may no longer be there to carry them out. A hospital can receive new equipment, but its patients still need doctors with the time and experience to treat them. The same difficulty confronts public institutions, where new laws achieve little without staff who have the expertise to put them into practice. As the population ages, these shortages risk becoming harder to manage. Those who stay may find themselves working longer hours or waiting longer for care. For a family already considering a move abroad, these everyday difficulties can become another reason to leave.
Making staying a realistic choice requires more than asking people to be patient with reform. A young graduate needs to see a route from education to a job that offers room to progress. For parents, a better salary may make little difference if childcare is unavailable or housing remains out of reach. These concerns should shape how the government measures its progress. Announcing new jobs is not enough without asking whether they offer the pay and stability people need to plan their lives. Moldova cannot be expected to match Western European salaries overnight. It can, however, focus on making a future at home less uncertain.
Moldova has a programme to encourage people to return; its success depends on what happens after they come home. The government’s 2023–2027 return and reintegration programme promises help with finding work, accessing healthcare and education, and starting a business. Helping someone find work is a start, but the position also needs to offer a reason to stay. A returnee with years of experience abroad may struggle to see a future in a job with little room to progress. Can their children settle into school? Is a business still operating once the initial support ends? Following families beyond their arrival would help show whether the programme makes returning a workable choice—and where it still falls short.
One practical step is to make returning less of a bureaucratic obstacle course. In May 2025, the government approved a national return assistance mechanism, designed to give citizens a single point of contact within the Diaspora Relations Office. Its remit includes guidance before departure for Moldova, help with recognising studies completed abroad and support for starting businesses. Having somewhere to turn could spare returnees the frustration of being passed between institutions while trying to organise their move. But coordination only helps if the institutions involved can resolve the problems referred to them. The measure’s value will depend on whether people receive timely answers and practical help beyond their first inquiry.
Encouraging people to return must sit alongside preparations for an older population. The 2024 census found that residents aged 65 and over accounted for 18.1 per cent of the population, up from 11.3 per cent in 2014. Bringing people home could ease some labour shortages, but the government still needs to plan for rising demand for care. That means training healthcare workers and developing services that support older people without leaving relatives to manage alone. Older employees who want to remain in work should also have access to training. Moldova needs a demographic policy that works even if fewer people return than the government hopes.
Moldova cannot build its future on the assumption that its emigrants will come back. Some will, and the government should make that decision easier. Others have established lives abroad, and their decision to remain there should not be treated as a failure of loyalty. The priority must be to give people a credible choice, while improving conditions for those already living in the country. Who will build Moldova’s future? The answer begins with its residents, and whether they can see a future for themselves at home.
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