Western Foreign Policy is a TRIPP: “Near Abroad” Status and the Future of Armenia

As the back and forth of the Russo-Ukrainian War continues to come in waves through our news outlets, cracks in the Putin War Machine are widening in precariously placed states like Armenia. Codified in 2017 and enacted in 2021, the European Union and Armenia signed a Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement (CEPA), which aims to develop a dialogue between both entities, primarily on conciliation for regional conflict resolution and liberalisation of EU visas. While this is an immense victory for the cooperation between Yerevan and Brussels, two very large players stand to make this process a bit more nuanced than hoped for. The Kremlin and Washington have become intensely focused on maintaining their spheres of influence as a turbulent political climate makes cooperation harder than ever. The US Government, in a rare move, orchestrated a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia, as tensions have risen in the past years over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. This olive branch of diplomacy will ultimately produce a corridor of transit between the two countries and be named the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP).

Utilising the work of Mr. Polo, this route largely follows the Silk Road, effectively disrupting Armenia’s dependence on its Turkic neighbours, the Kremlin, and even China, as far as trade goes. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, Russia has traditionally played a protective role for the nation, whether under attack from the Ottomans or, more recently, Azerbaijan. Armenians claim that they have inhabited the region since before the birth of Christ, while Azerbaijan has held the territory under the fist of the Aliyev ruling family, rendering this dispute quite difficult. As a result of the regional conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia’s Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan, has expressed growing dissatisfaction with the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Kremlin due to their continued disregard for his pleas for aid. Following the Azeri aggression and Russia’s swift decline in power-projection, Armenia is looking to the West for more constructive relationships that will guarantee its national security and economic prosperity. This is a daring gambit, considering Russia’s ongoing attempts at maintaining broader borders through all-out war and subterfuge using inter alia social media. I believe that if Armenia intends to continue tethering itself to the West and the EU, it will require significant housekeeping regarding its governing capacity and its increasing dependence on Russian imports. 

Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Armenia has hit a record high of trade with Russia, specifically with fuel and electronics. It has enjoyed a penalty-free status thus far, whereas countries like Belarus have not been as fortunate, facing hefty sanctions and fines imposed by Western nations. At the inception of Armenia’s independence from the USSR, President Petrosyan sought to establish a balance in trade and global relations between the East and the West. However, following the invasion of Ukraine, Pashinyan has only ramped up his nation’s trade with the Kremlin. Yet, no sanctions have been handed down, perhaps because of its advantageous geography that would allow the West to effectively remove Russia’s deep colonial tentacles that have grown increasingly tighter under Putin. This trade route will connect the Stan’s of Central Asia down through the Caucasus to Turkey, and then to other markets that don’t include Russia and China. Indubitably a big win for the United States, this could help build a stronger bridge between the West and the Armenian people, with Russia losing another satellite state. 

The Caucasus have long held a special place in my mind, having first learned about the region through the brilliance of Leo Tolstoy’s The Cossacks. It remains a place replete with vibrant culture and strong people, and extremely conscious of the geopolitical ramifications surrounding this new peace deal. For Tbilisi, this peace is certain to bring economic pain, as Georgia has largely backstepped in its relationship with the West due to increasingly threatening direction from Moscow. With the evident lack of cohesion among EU states on the subjects of NATO expansion and the progression of the union itself, I am concerned by the new norm of EU leaders succumbing to Trump’s demeanor of transactional diplomacy. Georgia may suffer the same fate as a pariah state economy, like Iran and North Korea, unless the EU can lend a democratic hand in hopes of further disruption to the Russian sphere of influence. It remains evident in this case how wickedly powerful states like the United States and Russia maintain dominance through transactional governance that will ultimately only benefit those lucky enough to be on the right side.

While looming sanctions rise ever closer on the horizon over Central Asia, many Kazakhstani and Uzbekistani folks aren’t too keen on maintaining the same relationships that once worked in a multi-vector economy with Russia. In the aftershocks of the Ukrainian invasion, the ongoing bloodshed of this war will most certainly mean further deterioration of Russian markets as Central Asia looks West for more promising agreements for the future prosperity and security of their countries. As the political spheres presently are, it is absolutely in the best interest of Armenia to continue its pursuit of further cooperation with Western nations if it has any aims of ending its colonial relationship with Russia and increasing its protection. The encouragement of authoritarian leaders only serves to continue the abuse inflicted upon the general population of states that deny their citizens democracy. That said, it is also imperative to acknowledge the fallow diplomacy of the Trump administration, given the most recent talks on Ukraine by Trump and Putin. While this peace agreement is certainly an advantageous move for global cooperation, it is still the long arm of Trump’s foreign policy that, in the context of the United States, only shows continued abuse of the Constitution and citizenry.

Image: Flickr/The White House (Daniel Torok)

Licence: public domain (US governmental work)

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