The US election results have left no doubt that the political landscape for the Republican and Democratic Parties has changed profoundly. Surpassing his results in both 2016 and 2020, Donald Trump's 312 electoral votes have crowned him president of the United States for the second time. At the age of 78, Trump becomes the oldest incumbent president in American history, as well as only the second president to have two non-consecutive terms.
The election brought with it other significant milestones. The now president-elect received 45% of the Latino vote, the highest percentage any Republican presidential candidate has achieved to date. Equally as unprecedented was his triumph in the 7 battleground states of these elections: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada (the latter had not been won by the Republicans since 2004). Also entering the White House with Donald Trump are JD Vance (the first millennial vice president of the US) and Susie Wiles, Trump’s former campaign manager, who in 2025 will become the first woman in history to hold the position of Chief of Staff. The Republican Party seems to have completely assimilated the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement and along with them a high number of voters who chose to give Donald Trump a second chance.
It is striking how the events of January 6, 2021, as well as the innumerable political scandals and legal charges Trump faced, did very little to scupper his campaign or movement. The outcome of these elections signals that the party of Lincoln, Eisenhower, Reagan and the Bushes no longer exists, and that the cult of Trump now holds totalising dominion over the party’s rank and file. The legislative branch will also be full of both loyalists and sycophants of the Trumpist cause, which will provide high maneuverability for the mandate of the next president, who will also have the majority of governors to enforce his policies.
Given this scenario, I dare say that a very important question remains regarding the future of the Republican Party, no matter how soon it appears to be asked: will JD Vance be the future leader of the MAGA movement? Although he is perfectly positioned to be the natural heir to Donald Trump, the truth is that everything can change over the course of four years and one cannot guarantee that Vance’s closeness and loyalty to Trump will lead him to become the next leader of the party. Time will tell whether Donald Trump sees Vance as worthy of his support or not.
On the Democrats’ side, there is a totally different picture. Vice President Kamala Harris's defeat at the polls set off alarms within the party ranks and triggered a heated discussion among grandees about what went wrong in 2024. The biggest rebuke so far has come from Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, who accuses the democrats of abandoning the working class. Although his voice has political weight, it is worth remembering that Sanders is only a half-Democrat. Throughout his career he has been an independent politician and has only joined the party on the two occasions when he sought the presidential nomination in 2016 and 2020. So, while his tirades should be taken into consideration, the truth is that Sanders is not a leadership figure within the party apparatus. Another statement that is causing a stir among the Democratic ranks is that of former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who argued that if President Joe Biden had withdrawn before the race there would have been a better chance of winning. Frankly, I view this particular pronouncement with great disdain, since the same could be said of her not giving up party leadership before the 2022 midterms-elections in which the Democrats lost the majority in the House under her leadership.Â
Once Biden's term ends in January 2025, the Democratic Party will be headless. After these elections, there is no apparent heir to the Biden administration and I highly doubt that Harris will even be considered for 2028. Some see this as a chaotic situation, others view it as one which provides the Democrats a rare opportunity. In the coming years, various figures in the party will most likely seek to remain politically relevant at the national level in order to become the next leader. The governors are the best positioned to do so. That's why I dare say that we should keep the following on our radar: Gavin Newsom (California); Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania); J.B. Pritzker (Illinois); Tim Walz (Minnesota); Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan); Andy Beshear (Kentucky) and Michelle Lujan Grisham (New Mexico). Likewise, we should not rule out those who attempted the Democratic nomination in 2020 and who could try again in 2028, among them Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren, and Amy Klobuchar. Of course, a new figure could emerge in four years that shakes up the political scene - only time will tell.
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