Evaluation of The Türkiye-PKK Peace Talks, The PKK's Dissolution, and Regional Implications

Image: X / DEMGENELMERKEZI

The decades-long conflict between Türkiye and the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) has reached a potentially transformative juncture with the PKK's recent decision to dissolve itself under the leadership of Abdullah Öcalan. This historic move follows a series of peace talks in late 2024 and early 2025, driven by a complex interplay of factors including Türkiye's strategic objectives, Öcalan's evolving stance, and shifting regional dynamics. In late 2024 and early 2025, a renewed peace initiative gained momentum following a suggestion from Devlet Bahceli, the leader of Türkiye's far-right Nationalist Movement Party, and a subsequent call from the imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan for the organization to lay down arms and dissolve. This culminated in the PKK's formal announcement in May 2025 of its decision to disband, a potentially historic event that could mark a definitive turning point in the long and bloody conflict. The anticipated impact of the PKK's dissolution is far-reaching, with significant implications for the Kurdish issue within Türkiye, the volatile situation in Syria, and the intricate relationship between Türkiye and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). While international reactions have been cautiously optimistic, the long-term implications for regional stability hinge on the implementation of the disarmament process and the willingness of all parties to address the underlying issues. This analysis will delve into the intricacies of these recent peace talks, the factors leading to the PKK's dissolution, the anticipated ramifications of this decision on the complex situation in Syria, and the evolving dynamics of the relationship between Türkiye and the SDF.

Türkiye - PKK Peace Talks and PKK's Disarmament Process

The recent peace initiative between Türkiye and the PKK, leading to the latter's dissolution, began in the political arena with the surprise proposal of Nationalist Leader Devlet Bahçeli in the parliament in October 2024, largely due to positive results of the secret talks held by the Turkish National Intelligence Organization with Öcalan at the beginning of 2024. This overture from a key ally of President Erdoğan, who had historically been a staunch opponent of any concessions to the PKK, signalled a potential shift in the Turkish government's approach. Following Bahceli's statement, a delegation composed of prominent Kurdish politicians from the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party, formerly HDP) was formed to facilitate communication between the Turkish state and the imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan. This delegation subsequently held multiple meetings with Öcalan in İmralı prison. These direct engagements, facilitated by the DEM Party, which has consistently advocated for Öcalan's involvement in peace efforts, underscore the crucial role of Kurdish political representation in bridging the gap between the PKK and the Turkish state. 

PKK declares ceasefire.

The culmination of these initial talks came in February 2025 when Öcalan issued a message from prison calling on the PKK to disarm and disband. The PKK's initial response was swift, with the organization declaring a unilateral ceasefire in March 2025 and announcing its readiness to convene a party congress to discuss the formal dissolution of the group. This prompt reaction to Öcalan's appeal highlights his enduring influence over the PKK. In addition, this reaction to Öcalan's call clearly shows that Abdullah Öcalan, who has been in prison for more than 26 years, is still the leader of his organisation both in practice and in theory. The process moved forward with the PKK holding its 12th Congress in May 2025, where the historic decision to dissolve the organization and end its armed struggle was formally announced.

The PKK's formal announcement in May 2025 marked the end of its organizational structure and its method of armed struggle, signaling a potential historic shift in the decades-long conflict with Türkiye. While the official statement declared the cessation of activities under the PKK name, the practical process of disarmament is expected to unfold over a period of 3 to 4 months, according to media outlets close to the Turkish government. The primary locations for the weapons handover are anticipated to be in northern Iraq, where the PKK has maintained a significant presence in mountainous regions for many years. Initially, there were reports suggesting that the disarmament process might be supervised by international observers, including representatives from the United Nations. However, the UN subsequently clarified that it would not be directly involved in supervising the disarmament but remains ready to assist and facilitate any movement towards peace, if requested by all parties involved. During the disbandment and disarmament process, the delivery of weapons will be supervised by a tripartite mechanism consisting of officials from Türkiye, Iraq and the Kurdistan Region at designated points in the Iraqi Kurdistan Region, and this process will be reported to Ankara by Turkish intelligence and military officials.

Another critical aspect of the dissolution process concerns the future of the thousands of PKK fighters. If the process of laying down arms is positive, the Turkish state will turn its attention to the situation of PKK militants. During this process, PKK militants will not be allowed to cross into Syrian Kurdistan under any circumstances. This condition is Türkiye’s red line. Firstly during this process, all militants who are not Turkish citizens will be allowed to go to their own countries. During this process, it is planned that high-level members may be sent to third countries, while lower-level militants who do not have an arrest warrant in Türkiye may potentially return to the country after a legal framework is created to facilitate their reintegration into society. However, militants who have an arrest warrant in Türkiye and do not wish to return to Türkiye are planned to be allowed to live in designated areas (Makhmur or Koysanjak) in the Kurdistan Region. However, the long history of the PKK includes internal divisions, and there remains a possibility that splinter groups might emerge who oppose the central organization's decision to dissolve and could continue to engage in armed struggle. The existence of such factions, as seen with groups like the Kurdistan Freedom Falcons (TAK) in the past, poses a potential challenge to the peace process and could lead to continued localized violence despite the PKK's overall dissolution.

The peace process between Türkiye and the PKK is a model specific to Türkiye. The state paradigm in Türkiye is first laying down arms unconditionally, then democratic constitutional steps and finally the normalisation process. This form, which is born of security concerns, works contrary to most peace processes. In fact, Öcalan supported this paradigm of the Turkish state in order to prevent the process from being disrupted and to establish peace. Notably, the details of the negotiations leading up to this decision, as well as any potential agreements reached between the Turkish government and the PKK, have been largely shrouded in secrecy. However, this lack of transparency highlights the sensitivity of the issues involved and a potential strategy to manage reactions from various factions, but it also raises questions about the extent to which the broader public is aware of the full terms. 

The Impact of the PKK's self-dissolution on the Kurdish Regions of Syria and Türkiye - SDF Relations in a Post-PKK Landscape

The PKK's decision to dissolve is poised to significantly impact the political and security landscape of Kurdish-majority areas in Syria. Türkiye has consistently maintained the expectation that the PKK's decision to dissolve should not be limited to its operations within Türkiye but must extend to all its affiliated groups operating in the region, most notably the People's Protection Units (YPG) in Syria, which form the backbone of the SDF. Turkey views the SDF and the YPG as extensions of the PKK and a significant national security threat along its southern border with Syria. Therefore, a core objective for Turkey is likely to see a comprehensive dismantling of the PKK's influence across the region, including in Syria, to ensure its long-term security and territorial integrity.

Türkiye has long cited the presence of PKK-affiliated groups, particularly the YPG, as a justification for its military operations within Syria. Türkiye demands that the YPG disarm as a consequence of the PKK's self-dissolution. With the PKK's formal end to armed operations, there is a potential for a reduction in Turkish military presence in these Kurdish regions. The implications for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are complex. While the SDF has ties to the PKK, it initially stated that Öcalan's call for dissolution did not apply to them. However, the SDF has also recently entered into an agreement with the central government in Damascus for a ceasefire and a potential merger into the Syrian army. The PKK's dissolution could influence the future trajectory of the SDF, potentially easing Turkish hostility if Ankara perceives a genuine separation between the two groups. Various Kurdish political groups in Syria, including the Democratic Union Party (PYD) and the Syrian Kurdish National Council (ENKS), have reacted generally positively to the PKK's announcement, viewing it as a significant step towards a more peaceful and politically stable future for Kurds across the region. However, Türkiye continues to maintain its expectation that the PKK's dissolution should also encompass the YPG, indicating that the situation remains delicate and subject to further developments.

The dissolution of the PKK has the potential to reshape the complex relationship between Türkiye and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). If Türkiye perceives the SDF as no longer directly linked to the PKK, it could open avenues for de-escalation and dialogue between the two sides. Türkiye's long-standing concern has been that the SDF, with its dominant YPG element, is simply a Syrian extension of the PKK. However, even with the PKK's dissolution, Türkiye's military presence and ongoing operations in northern Syria could continue to impact relations with the SDF, particularly if these actions target Kurdish-majority areas. The United States, which has supported the SDF in the fight against ISIS and is also a NATO ally of Türkiye, could play a crucial role in mediating between the two in this new context, potentially facilitating a more stable and cooperative relationship. The SDF's agreement with Damascus for integration into Syrian state institutions also provides a potential framework for future Türkiye-SDF relations. If Türkiye views this integration as genuine and leading to the dismantling of the SDF's autonomous military capabilities, it might alleviate some of Ankara's security concerns regarding the presence of a Kurdish force along its border.

International Reactions and Implications

The international community has reacted to the PKK's dissolution with cautious optimism. The United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres welcomed the announcement as an important step towards the peaceful resolution of a long-standing conflict.  The United States Embassy in Ankara hailed the move as a turning point and conveyed support to Türkiye. The European Union also welcomed the development, calling on all parties to seize the moment to work towards a political solution to the Kurdish issue. In addition, during this period, positive statements supporting the process came from Germany, Russia, and Syria and Iraq, where the PKK operates. This generally positive response indicates a global hope for an end to the decades-long conflict and a recognition of the potential for increased stability in the region. However, there is also an element of caution, with many international actors emphasising the need for the full implementation of the disarmament process and continued progress towards a comprehensive peace. 

The PKK's dissolution could potentially impact Türkiye's relations with these international actors. Over time, it might lead to a re-evaluation of the PKK's designation as a terrorist organisation by some nations, although immediate changes are unlikely. It could also ease tensions between Türkiye and the United States regarding US support for the SDF, particularly if Türkiye perceives a genuine and lasting separation between the two groups. Furthermore, the resolution of the Türkiye-PKK conflict has implications for regional stability beyond Syria, including in Iraq and Iran, which also have significant Kurdish populations. A peaceful settlement in Türkiye could potentially encourage political solutions over armed conflict in these neighbouring countries, although the specific dynamics in each nation will play a crucial role in shaping the outcomes.   

Conclusion: Long-Term Implications and Future Scenarios

The PKK's decision to dissolve itself in May 2025, which emerged as a result of the policies of oppression and assimilation,  represents a hopefully historic development that could bring an end to a conflict that has spanned over four decades and cost tens of thousands of lives. This decision was the culmination of a renewed peace initiative driven by a complex set of factors involving the strategic objectives of Türkiye, the evolving stance of PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan, and the shifting geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. The anticipated impacts of the PKK's dissolution are far-reaching, with the potential to reshape the Kurdish issue within Türkiye, stabilise the volatile situation in Syria, and redefine the intricate relationship between Türkiye and the SDF. While the international community has welcomed this development with cautious optimism, significant challenges remain in ensuring a sustainable peace process.  These challenges include building trust between the Turkish state and the Kurdish population, addressing the underlying grievances that fueled the conflict, enacting democratic political reforms and managing the potential for spoilers who might seek to undermine the progress made.

The PKK's dissolution carries profound long-term implications for the Kurdish issue in Türkiye. It presents a significant opportunity for a transition from armed struggle towards increased political participation and the pursuit of cultural and linguistic rights through democratic means. This shift could lead to a greater emphasis on dialogue, negotiation, and legal reforms to address the underlying grievances of the Kurdish population within the framework of a unified Türkiye. However, the future trajectory of this peace process remains uncertain. Several potential scenarios could unfold. The most optimistic involves a consolidation of peace, where both sides build trust, address Kurdish demands through meaningful reforms, and achieve a lasting political settlement. Conversely, there is a risk of a resurgence of conflict if these demands are not met adequately or if splinter groups within the PKK reject the dissolution and continue armed activities. Another possibility is a prolonged state of "no war, no peace," where the PKK's formal structures are dismantled, but underlying problems and tensions persist, and the potential for future conflict remains. In other words, the problem is a frozen state. The PKK has disbanded, the war is over, but there is no peace because the problems that gave rise to the PKK have not been resolved. In short, the resumption of the war is just waiting for a spark.

The role of civil society organisations and the broader Kurdish population will be crucial in shaping the long-term outcome. Their active engagement in promoting dialogue, reconciliation, and advocating for their rights through peaceful means will be essential for building a sustainable peace. Ultimately, the long-term implications of the PKK's dissolution for regional stability and the future of the Kurdish people in Türkiye and the wider Middle East will depend on the commitment of all parties to dialogue, reconciliation, and the pursuit of a just and lasting political settlement.