The Gulf States and the New Middle East

I have recently written a piece for Europinion discussing the notion of a New Middle East emerging as a result of US foreign policy that employs geopolitical engineering as a tool to carve out new borders that align with economic and geopolitical ambitions of the West within the region. Considering the most recent developments in the Gulf states, it is imperative that we revisit such questions and their implications on the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. 

What is now called the “12-Day War” between Iran and Israel had culminated in an unprecedented attack on the US base in Qatar, namely, Al Udeid airbase which took place on June 23, 2025. The strike, which consisted of dozens of missiles fired from Iran towards Qatar, did not lead to any casualties according to US and Qatari sources. Nonetheless, it was a clear statement towards the US following their successful airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities a day earlier by US B-2 bombers. What is clearly overlooked by analysts concerning these specific tensions, is their future implications on the economic and geopolitical realities of the GCC states. The attacks on Qatar could signal the start of a new age for these states that currently find themselves in a geopolitical conundrum – effectively stuck between affirming their strong bond with the US as regional partners, and appeasement with Iran in order to deescalate regional tensions. 

Qatar and the United Arab Emirates have produced economic models that have propelled their countries to preeminence almost overnight. Today their economies are internationally intertwined to a degree that GCC sovereign wealth funds actively shape the global markets through their investments funded primarily through oil and gas revenues. The brand developed by both Doha and Dubai reflect this globalist ethos that aims to achieve economic and financial development through attracting foreign expats to relocate to such cities as “beacons of prosperity and peace” in a rather tumultuous region. As “rentier states”, the economic and geopolitical development of the GCC states could be said to have been primarily shaped by the abundance of one specific commodity that had shaped modern industries and economies within the past two centuries – oil. The GCC leadership are aware of their finite resources, and also the mortal nature of most commodities across history. Perhaps oil, as a resource, could face the very same fate as other commodities that have played a significant role in history, but then lost their value as economic development rendered them irrelevant. What is described by some as the “McKinsey-ization” of the GCC – the active role of consulting firms in shaping social and economic policies within the Gulf states – is carving new economic paths for these states based on potential futures where the Gulf states move beyond their rentier status and dependency on oil and gas. These ambitious transformations are contingent on regional stability, leaving them vulnerable to flare-ups in regional tensions which could deter foreign expats from viewing some of these states as plausible living and investing options. The havoc caused  by the recent attacks on Qatar – resulting in the closure of UAE airspace, Bahrain implementing remote work policies, and a sense of urgency across the GCC as a whole – is a glimpse of the negative repercussions such regional tensions could have on the fragile transitional economic models currently deployed. 

The Sultanate of Oman, however, seems to be an exception. Habitually the odd man out, due to its strategic location on the Arabian Sea and unique economic and foreign policy approach, Oman has leveraged this uniqueness to affirm its neutrality, playing a significant role in US-Iran nuclear talks which were mediated by the Sultanate. Moreover, the neutrality of Oman had produced a strong relationship with Iran despite tension between most GCC states and the revolutionary Islamic republic. Oman’s distinct approach to foreign policy also spills over into economic and architectural realms, with a unique approach to urban planning and economic development that blends with the unique terrain of the country. This neutrality is reflected architecturally through their preference for low-rise buildings, effectively leading to the dominance of nature within its skyline, as opposed to its neighbours who emphasise the building of high-rise skyscrapers that clutter their skyline. 

Additionally, Oman’s strategic location at the Arabian sea, combined with the new GCC railway network project, would highlight the value of the new Duqm port. Although the 12-Day War between Iran and Israel had not directly led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, where 20% of global oil and gas is shipped through, the Strait remains a crucial wild card in Iran’s disposal when faced with an existential threat, one that the whole world came close to witnessing in past months. Such dangers have fostered the elevation of alternative routes and ports, such as Duqm.

This is clearly a new age for the GCC states, representing unprecedented economic and geopolitical challenges. As the new age dawns upon a Gulf woven into a multipolar international political order, the Gulf states should reaffirm their cohesion and unity despite ever more divergent economic and geopolitical trajectories.