Eurosceptic Babiš Claimed Victory In Czech Assembly Elections, But Can He Be Wooed By Brussels?

Czech billionaire turned populist politician and former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš has won a plurality in this month's elections in the central European country, defeating incumbent Prime Minister Petr Fiala's centrist coalition and falling 20 seats short of an overall majority.

Nicknamed the ‘Czech Trump’, Babiš made his return on the back of the Czech Republic's economic woes.  The central European state had seen one of the worst inflation rates in Europe and had borne the brunt of the energy crises that had followed Russia's invasion of Ukraine. 

A Eurosceptic and a member of Viktor Orbán's “pro-sovereignty” Patriots for Europe group in the European Parliament, Babiš's victory additionally reflects a growing mood of distrust towards Brussels. 

Moreover, the success of populist anti-Ukrainian parties highlights increasing concerns regarding the likelihood of Russian interference in European elections.  Both the Czech SPD and AUTO (Motorists for Themselves) have favoured an exit from NATO and a so-called ‘Czexit’.

Nonetheless, several key issues erode Babiš's victory. 

Though defeated, Fiala’s coalition outperformed expectations. Projected to only win 60-70 seats, Fiala’s coalition held on to 90, underscoring the fact that while the Czech Republic is experiencing a populist surge, many are still unwilling to jump ship towards the hard-right. 

For Brussels, the Czech election is certainly cause for alarm. Babiš has taken a hardline stance on Ukrainians, efforts to maintain the EU’s emission targets, and immigration, and has publicly vowed to take the fight to Brussels. As a populist, Babiš remains part of a movement that will arguably have a corrosive effect on politics within the Czech Republic and Europe more broadly.

However, Babiš has also ruled out a referendum on the republic's membership in the EU and NATO, signalling that while the ANO maintains a degree of aversion towards both institutions, it remains unwilling to go as far as the SPD, which wants to tear them down.

Furthermore, Babiš's stance towards Ukraine has seemingly softened.  Having previously called for a complete cut to the use of federal funds to Ukrainian defence, Babiš has unexpectedly entertained a visit to Kyiv, indicating that he can be swayed towards cooperation.

To be frank, Babiš certainly isn’t Brussels' best friend, but neither is he its worst foe: time and circumstance have proven he is open to compromise. Rifts exist within the Czech right: Babiš clearly isn't willing to go as far as the Putinist SPD. Therefore, if Brussels wants to keep Babiš in line, a policy built on pragmatic compromise with Prague must be established lest they follow the lead of Robert Fico’s Slovakia.

Image: Flickr/ Vox España

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