From Nicosia with Love: How One Election Reopened the Aegean Rift

On 24 October 2025, the pro-reunification, Turkish Cypriot candidate Tufan Erhurman won the elections in Northern Cyprus. He won convincingly, with a whopping 62.8% of the vote. For the past 51 years, the island has been divided between the Republic of Cyprus in the south and a Turkish-occupied zone in the north - the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). Many attempts to reunite Cyprus have failed due to disagreements between regional actors, primarily over Turkey's continuous military occupation and its antagonistic demands. Today, the situation remains the same. Ankara supports a two-state solution, whilst Greece, Cyprus, as well as a majority of Turkish Cypriots, advocate for one federal state. 

With Cyprus set to take the EU presidency in January 2026, these questions could soon become EU-wide issues. Nikos Christodoulides, president of Cyprus, intends to seize this opportunity in talks with Turkey. This is especially true with pending EU issues on the agenda, such as enlargement negotiations and energy issues in the Aegean. “We cannot change our geography. Turkey will always be a neighbor of Cyprus, so I prefer a neighbor that is close to the European Union.”, he told the FT in mid-November 2025.

Christodoulides hopes to get settlement negotiations back on course in his first meeting with Erhurman, stating that their “first meeting is particularly significant because, within the framework of the discussion, I believe any issues will become clear, especially regarding how we proceed.” Christodoulides favours UN involvement - resurrecting the idea for the first time since 2017 and the Annan Plan, a failed United Nations plan that tried to reunify the island based on the Swiss federal model. 

Turkey, unsurprisingly, dismisses any previous agreements and favors a new dialogue based on newly established realities. “You cannot dry today’s laundry with yesterday’s sun”, Erdogan said. Turkey’s president blamed Greece and Cyprus, and their insistence on a one state model, for the stall in talks.

Ziya Ozturkler, speaker for the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), emphasised the supposedly strong bond between Turkish Cypriots and Ankara and the importance of a strong Turkey for the TRNC. Ilnur Cevik, Erdogan’s former advisor, reaffirmed Cyprus’s strategic importance for Ankara: "The island is like a static aircraft carrier; it can dominate the whole of the Middle East and Turkey as well.” 

More than just statements, the Turkish Air Force has also recently added fuel to the fire. Four Turkish F-16s flew into Cypriot airspace on 15 November, with two even passing over the UN controlled buffer zone. A week later, two Turkish sailing boats accompanied by two coast guard vessels entered Greek waters. These acts were direct provocations, sending a clear message: in Turkey's eyes, Cyprus belongs to them. 

The newly established military, economic and energy alliance between Israel, Greece and Cyprus as a response to Turkish demands has further deteriorated relations between Israel and Turkey. In the past decades, Israel, Greece and Cyprus have formed economic and energy partnerships, such as the 3+1 agreement, all the while excluding Turkey. These partnerships could be used to ease talks or as a bargain within the framework of reunification talks on Cyprus and negotiations with Ankara.

The elections in TRNC  have reopened an old wound in the eastern Aegean Sea. Whilst there seems to be hope on the Cypriot side for a possible reunification in the future, the political and historical fractures remain clearly visible. Israeli involvement with military and energy alliances will act as a double-edged sword, either helping the talks or exacerbating tensions in an already very tense and delicate situation. Only skilful Cypriot diplomacy, backed by an EU framework and American leverage, can pave the way towards peace in the Aegean.

Marco Noguier is a Policy Fellow at the Pinsker Centre, a UK-based foreign policy think tank focused on Middle Eastern Affairs.

Image: Wikimedia Commons/Liilia Moroz

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