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Writer's picturePatrick René Haasler

EU Referendum and Presidential Elections in Moldova: The Climax of a Geostrategic Chess Game?



Moldova is preparing for a significant referendum on EU membership scheduled for October 20, 2024. This referendum will coincide with the presidential elections and is seen as a pivotal moment for the country, which has been striving to align more closely with European institutions amidst Russian influence.


The objective of the referendum is to amend the Moldovan Constitution to include EU accession as a national goal. A "yes" vote would solidify Moldova's commitment to pursuing EU membership, which many Moldovans associate with economic development and stability. Recent polls indicate that approximately 60% of Moldovans support EU membership. However, the referendum's validity requires a turnout of at least one-third of registered voters, raising concerns about voter mobilization amid potential Russian interference.


Moldova has been navigating a complex political landscape characterised by a pro-European stance versus pro-Russian influences. The current ruling party, the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS), led by President Maia Sandu, is pushing for reforms and closer ties with the European Union. However, opposition parties, particularly those aligned with former President Igor Dodon, advocate for stronger relations with Russia, complicating the electoral dynamics. 


The current president, Maia Sandu, who is pro-European, has linked her re-election campaign to the success of the referendum. Her government faces challenges from opposition parties that have historically favored closer ties with Russia. The Kremlin is actively attempting to undermine the referendum through disinformation campaigns and efforts to (de)mobilize voters in cooperation with local oligarchs and political officials.


Two prominent examples that are often accused by Chisinau of serving Moscow's interests are the Governor or Bashkan of Gagauzia, Evghenia Gutul and the Moldovan oligarch and founder of the Shor Party, Ilan Shor. There are concerns that if turnout fails to meet the required threshold, it could be perceived as a defeat for pro-European forces. Additionally, Moldova's population is divided along ethnic and political lines, complicating consensus on EU integration. Regions like Gagauzia show significant pro-Russian sentiment, which could affect overall voter turnout and preferences.


In Transnistria, a breakaway region supported by Russia and home to about 2,000 Russian troops, the situation presents unique challenges. Although Transnistria is not officially recognized and is considered part of Moldova, residents can vote in Moldovan elections. This means their preferences could influence the outcome of both the presidential elections and the EU referendum. The region is characterized by strong pro-Russian sentiments, which may skew overall results against EU integration.


Observers are keen to see how many Transnistrians participate in the voting process and what their stance will be regarding EU membership. Transnistria, which is not internationally recognized and is controlled by a pro-Russian regime, is also planning a referendum on independence or joining the Russian Federation. This initiative is not recognized by the international community and is seen as an attempt to undermine Moldova's territorial integrity.


The simultaneous referendums highlight the conflict between pro-European aspirations in Moldova and separatist ambitions in Transnistria. A positive outcome for EU accession could further isolate pro-Russian forces in Transnistria and escalate geopolitical tensions in the region. Conversely, a negative result or low voter turnout in the Moldovan referendum could be interpreted as a victory for Russia, potentially destabilizing Moldova's political landscape.


As the election date approaches, various political parties are ramping up their campaigns, and public debates are expected to intensify around these critical issues. Voter turnout and engagement will be crucial in shaping Moldova's future direction amid its ongoing struggles with governance and international relations. The choice between aligning more closely with the EU or maintaining ties with Russia will be pivotal for many voters.


Overall, the upcoming referendum in Moldova represents a critical juncture for the nation as it navigates its future amidst external pressures from Russia and internal divisions. The outcome will not only shape Moldova's geopolitical alignment but also test the resilience of its democratic processes in the face of hybrid warfare tactics employed by foreign influences. Even if the EU referendum turns out positively and the incumbent president Maia Sandu is re-elected, this does not mean that the geostrategic maneuver of the Russians in Bessarabia will be lost. Moldova will, if at all, join the EU only in 2030, and presidential elections will be held again in 2028. According to current polls, a slight majority of people living in Moldova (including Transnistria) are in favor of further rapprochement with the EU. It would therefore be a surprise if this trend were to reverse negatively in such a short time and the bilateral efforts between Brussels and Chisinau were to diminish.


Additionally, Putin could agree to an EU accession under the condition of international recognition of Transnistria as an independent state, in exchange for a significant concession and after tough diplomatic negotiations. This is not a particularly likely scenario, but more on that in a separate article.



Image: Wikimedia Commons/Gikü

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