A Postcard from Taiwan

“Oh no, we shouldn’t talk about politics. It’s not worth getting involved”. That is the reply of an Ama (Granny) to a question about the “Nine-in-One” local elections taking place in November later this year. You can understand where Ama is coming from – she has lived through a prolonged “White Terror” period of martial law, where talking politics could cost one their life. 

For the young people in the modern, democratic Taiwan, the opposite is now true. “If we allow the KMT to win, we are lying flat (giving in) to China.” says a nuer (daughter). You can also understand the sentiment. Frequent invocation of “peace” or “stability” in KMT messaging at the cost of forgoing defence budget increases, seems naive at best, or corrupt at worst. 

The chair of the KMT party flew to China to meet with Xi Jin-Ping and reaffirm the “1992 Consensus”, yet only a few weeks later did China use economic force to block a Taiwanese state visit to Eswatini. The ambiguity of the “1992 Consensus” has now turned into a vulnerability. 

“They have good infrastructure, and efficiency. Taiwan could use some more of that.” That is what shushu (uncle) says when asked about Taiwan-China relations. He also praised the KMT’s modernisation of Taiwan since the 1980s. 

Yet China has weaponised this same economic interdependence. Regularly, the Chinese state will promise great incentive programmes to Taiwanese enterprises, who sign up and invest their resources. China later revokes said incentives without reason, leaving Taiwanese enterprises over-leveraged. 

“I know who I am voting for.” Says mama (mother), also a business owner. She implies she will vote DPP. You may wonder why the national politics determine the local. A KMT councillor could be more effective in their job than the DPP contender on local issues, such as disaster relief during typhoon season, local house prices, or food safety – in theory. 

Yet the KMT has proven devoted to politicising council control. Last year, the KMT-led Taichung City Council came under scrutiny for its poor response to an African swine fever outbreak, and tried to deflect blame onto the DPP central government. This year, the KMT-led Taipei City Council has been criticised for a poor response to major rat infestations; they accused the DPP of political points-scoring and spreading disinformation on the issue. 

Those actions by the KMT could be seen as a part of a wider strategy of mundane economic, legal, cyber, telecoms, and cognitive coercion from China – the so-called “United Front” Strategy. So while an individual KMT councillor could seek to do their role well, as a collective, they become a small instrument of aggression in the wider Cross-Strait struggle. 

Running parallel to the chatter about local politics, the military threat feels very immediate. Taiwanese jet fighters routinely fly overhead in major cities, and the Ministry of Defence website proffers a disconcerting running commentary on PLA maritime and air manoeuvres. 

After a time, you attune, and life in Taiwan seems beautifully ordinary. News channels show updates about minor vehicle collisions, some boring legislative process, or even a squirrel running up an escalator. When you meet people, they roll their eyes at mention of the KMT, and change the topic. 

I wondered why exactly China’s Premier talks about “re-unification”, and so seriously too. His predecessor, Mao Zedong, relented from invasion, instead playing with his opposite number by exchanging coordinated performative firing of weapons over the Taiwanese Kinmen Islands.

Xi-Jinping by comparison, is at the forefront of modern China, faced with fewer easy strategic decisions to progress the state than Mao was. He could be motivated by “high-level” geopolitical considerations over resources and open water access; supply chain considerations over semi-conductor chips; or ideological considerations over an integrated Communist China. 

In Rebel Island, Jonathan Clements suggests Taiwan is too dangerous to be left alone, serving as a mirror of what a democratised China could be. The Premier also seems to firmly believe it is his cosmic duty to return moral balance to the world. How do you reason with a leader who is jealous, aggressive, and bordering on delusional about a cosmic duty to dominate Taiwan so absolutely?

Taiwan seems more inclined to focus on halting China’s “United Front” than reasoning with Xi. Yet Taiwan needs a reliable US partner, including economically, to backstop their defensive efforts. Taiwan imports most of its energy fuels, and relies on US demand for AI tech and semiconductors to feed economic growth. 

Any disruption in critical trade or supply lines – such as a major shock in the Middle East – or a massive collapse in the AI industry, leaves Taiwan vulnerable. Some of the more politically minded Taiwanese are fearful of military invasion. The looming threat of an invasion after 2027 – the so-called Davidson Window – particularly concerns them. 

These fears were typically dismissed by experts, but it seems likely Xi Jinping will attempt a winning manoeuvre in a moment when the US is strategically weak, unable to give military or sanctions support. When we consider how ineffective “United Front” efforts seem, and projections of global depression by Christmas, Xi may be seduced to act sooner than thought.  

I return to my home in Glasgow, having respectfully asked the folk deities Guan-yu and Mazu to safeguard peace and security for the wonderful people calling this beautiful island home. Yet I cannot help think that, surely, there is more that can be done.

Image: G Armstrong

Licence.

No image changes made.