Have Labour Read the History Books? Have Conservatives?

Robert Paxton’s seminal The Anatomy of Fascism conceptualises it not as a category but a political process: “all that is required… is polarisation, deadlock, mass mobilisation against internal and external enemies, and complicity by existing elites.” Nearly all are present in the UK. 

The collapse in electoral support for the Conservative Party and rise in support for Reform UK, the Green Party, the SNP, and Plaid Cymru are the most obvious political signs of polarisation. Mass mobilisation against “the enemies” does occur both as violent racist pogroms in Belfast and intimidating Unite the Kingdom rallies in London. 

Paxton further writes: “Fascism in action is more like a network than an essence”. Our existing elites are willing to form coalitions with the most radical elements in our politics. Former Conservative Party big-wigs, such as Baroness Stroud, Liz Truss, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Boris Johnson, and Michael Gove are quite happy to appear at major right-wing conferences with Nigel Farage and Danny Kruger. Quieter elites are also willing to make appearances on GB News or at right-wing conferences, such as Richard Dearlove or Luke Tryl.  

Paxton explains that any such network is “a never-ending struggle for pre-eminence within a coalition, exacerbated by the collapse of constitutional restraints”. Indeed, some constitutional restraints  in the UK have been removed, such as removal of jury courts in certain instances, or invasions of freedom to protest or rights to privacy.  

The development of that coalition-building is visible, even online. There are at least three broad tiers that can be categorised. There are transnational elites at the top, national elites in the middle, and local groups at the base. This structure is evident in Northern Ireland. I noted the appearance of unusual Christian Nationalist-themed flags in Loyalist neighbourhoods in March; they have been joined by anti-Islam banners and murals:  

These symbols invoking “white genocide” or “uncontrolled mass migration” appear in locations where Richard Inman, a long-time associate of Tommy Robinson, has recorded himself operating. Mr. Inman is connected to the burgeoning far right in Northern Ireland, including the “Ballymena Reaction Group” responsible for the Ballymena riots in 2025 and Steven Baker, an agitator behind the June 2026 violence. 

Mr. Baker was likely supported by the East Belfast UVF and Southeast Antrim UDA, whose “neighbourhoods” display the most extreme of these symbols. “Concerned Parents NI”, the supposed producers of the symbols, are tied to the “Great British PAC”. The body is a joint venture including Ben Habib, the TUV, former DUP stalwarts, and led by Claire Bullivant. Ms. Bullivant is connected to the Telegraph, some of whose staff are involved with the “Free Speech Union”, itself connected to the Legatum Institute. 

The Legatum Institute’s members can variously be connected to Trump administration officials or associates through employment or appearances at conservative conferences organised by “Legatum” members. This is the transnational elite, where the violence on the ground through symbols and physical acts represents the local groups.   

Paxton explains how Fascism seeks to excite the “mobilising passions”: the need for radical solutions to overwhelming crises, the primacy of the in-group over the individual, fears of the in-group’s decline from liberal and “alien influences”, and a “chosen” people who dominate others in Darwinian struggle. Attempts are found in the “research papers” produced by the Alliance for Responsible Citizenship, and Reform UK’s manifesto. 

Reform UK have infamously promised mass deportations of “illegals”, and scrapping ILR status as part of an “emergency programme”. John Anderson writes that “Comfort, complacency… have crippled the West”. Erica Komisar argues that we must “put our own ambition, vanity, and pursuit of pleasure aside for… loftier goals”. Throughout papers, there are allusions to the primacy of Christian thought – John Anderson writes that “God limits the ability of the state to impinge on individual freedoms”.  

The symbols and narratives of the Fascist coalition in the UK are coalescing around a narrow interpretation of national sovereignty, the myth of “the one true Brexit”, pro-natalism, conservative Christian evangelism, the “Great Replacement” myth, and conspiracies around climate, public health, and a corrupt and decadent left-wing/centrist establishment.

Thankfully, there are at least two factors which work in British democracy’s favour against the Fascist network. First, there is no deadlock in the Westminster Parliament – the majority of Labour Party MPs have stood behind Andy Burnham. Second, Fascist coalitions are inherently unstable, and full of ego feuds. Look only to Rupert Lowe and his artistic differences with Nigel Farage as evidence. 

In order for Nigel Farage, Reform UK, or Restore Britain to take power, whoever it is deemed to take the helm of this conceited project, two conditions must be met. First, Burnham’s incoming government must stagnate, and second, the Fascist coalition must be able to maintain and grow political momentum across all three network tiers until 2029. 

It won’t be easy for Burnham; he is not all-powerful within the Labour Party. There are factions such as Blue Labour, associated with Maurice Glasmann, who himself moves in the same circles as Reform UK politicians. Burnham is further flanked by the Lib Dems, nationalist parties, and the Green Party. To avoid the deadlock death sentence, Burnham must bring these disparate groups onside in the face of the threat of Fascist takeover. 

The Fascist coalition will try to maintain their momentum via exploitation of crises. In Northern Ireland, the grassroots far right will be looking for any evidence of migrant crime to hyperbolise and justify mass mobilisations (riots) while the elite in non-denominational Evangelical and Unionist circles will continue to hyperbolise the expansion of reproductive and LGBTQ+ rights to justify the collapse of the Northern Ireland institutions. 

At a national level, Reform UK and the various far right mobilising forces will be looking to exploit migrant crime and state failure to combat economic woes. They may try to make vague election promises to disgruntled groups, such as military elites or parents, to bring them onboard. At the transnational level, the Trump Administration will continue to exploit conflicts to create crisis, assisting their central aim to “Save the West”, as outlined in the 2026 US Counter-Terrorism Strategy. 

The Fascist coalition will attempt to push the sociopolitical environment along Allport’s Scale, from a permissive environment where casual racism, hate speech, and nasty jokes are permitted, along through isolation and discrimination, aggressive hierarchisation, encouraging of hate crimes, and finally a drive for mass cleansing, possibly by deportation. 

For the centrists and left parties in the UK to prevent a Fascist takeover, they could sneakily incite breakdowns in relations between the Fascist coalition members, volatile and egotistical as they are. A less amoral solution involves appealing to the hearts of national-level conservative elites involved, possibly by showing them black and white images of Soviet troops entering Auschwitz.

This is not to equivocate the current Fascist coalition with the Nazis. It is rather to remind them how incredibly easy for Fascist coalitions to uncontrollably radicalise once they are in power. Is their complicity with radical changes to the state and the loss of democratic and legal safeguards something their conscience could live with? If it is, they may need to be gently reminded how Fascist regimes in the 20^th century ended. Not as a threat, but as a  warning.