House of Cards: The Limits of Foreign Aid in Ukraine’s War

On July 14th 2026, under the scorching Parisian sun, French military troops marched down the historical Champs Elysées. Unusually, this year the military parade was opened by the thirty five countries making up the Coalition of the Willing, flying over and marching down the avenue in front of their respective leaders. What followed was one the biggest parades ever witnessed on Bastille Day, with 6.700 troops, 98 aircrafts, 31 helicopters and 315 vehicles mobilised, simultaneously a show of force to mock European allies and a signal of a more belligerent French posture to those who question French strength (ie. Putin and Trump).

This military display topped off months of hard work for the Coalition of the Willing, the EU and NATO. In early 2026, Paris and London signed a declaration of intent to deploy troops in the event that a peace deal would be reached with Russia. Furthermore, the Russian spring-summer offensive has failed, suffering heavy casualties for relatively small gains as Ukraine’s drone strikes on Moscow increased, marking a slight turning point in the momentum of the conflict. In the days leading up  to the 14th of July the Coalition of the Willing agreed to conduct shared military drills in Poland involving around 1,500 soldiers. 

The EU, for its part, shifted to a twelve-month long extension of Russia sanctions, instead of the usual six-months cycle, reducing the frequency of politically sensitive discussions within the EU. Meanwhile, the Ankara summit resettled the importance of NATO’s Article 5 and greatly improved relations between Kyiv and Washington, with a deal on Patriot missiles which may well prove crucial for Ukraine’s war effort. 

Despite displays of grandeur and show of unity against the Russian giant, the honeymoon days of the Coalition of the Willing might be coming to a halt as the future proves increasingly uncertain: what Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron, the alliance's principle leaders, represented is fading, with their respective domestic politics pointing in darker directions. In France, Le Pen’s Rassemblement National, leading in the polls, struggles to justify its position regarding the Ukraine conflict, and has taken millions in Russian funds. Meanwhile, newly anointed UK PM Andy Burnham’s foreign policy remains unknown. London is still being torn apart between strengthening its European ties and preserving its ‘special relationship’ with Washington. 

The Coalition of the Willing is also plagued by dissent between allies. Some members, such as the Baltic countries and Poland, are pushing for further engagement, as they fear the conflict could spillover onto their territories. 

Meanwhile, other countries are reluctant to commit to the coalition due to clashing military perspectives. In April this year, Macron proposed a deal to Greek PM Kiriakos Mitsotakis to release Mirage fighter jets to Ukraine in exchange for the purchase of newer Rafale models. The deal faced serious hurdles in Greece, as it does not align with Athens's strategic agenda: it would leave a huge operational gap in the Hellenic Air Force whilst putting pressure on an already frail national budget. PM Mitsotakis judged the €600 million-tab imposed too hard to spend within the remaining months of the year. Further complications emerged as Bulgaria's Roumen Radev took Bulgaria out of the Coalition of the Willing, claiming the conflict will not be solved by providing military means but through a strong diplomatic mission. Both of these instances reveal the internal conflicts within the alliance and impede the smooth running and coordination of the Coalition towards its final goal. 

The European Union also faced some backlash in its 21st – and most recent – round of sanctions against Russia on July 15th. Greece blocked the EU proposal against Russian gas to protect tycoon Georgios Prokopiou, who has specialised in transporting Russian cargoes from a liquefied natural gas plant in the Arctic region. Dynagas and Dynacom, Prokopiou’s two shipping companies, made at least $915m just from shipping Russian crude oil to Europe, further distinguishing themselves by crossing the Strait of Hormuz in the midst of the crisis. Athens justified its stance due to the financial importance these two companies hold in Greece’s finely balanced economy, while also raising the concern that the companies’ sophisticated and expensive Arctic vessels would be ill-suited elsewhere, and would likely be sold to non-western actors. Kaja Kallas, the EU’s head diplomat, expressed regrets that an agreement could not be reached, adding however that if no compromise could be made, EU members would discuss a Plan B. There is a constant struggle to form a collective decision between states, as political and economic agendas and personal interests keep clashing, preventing a coordinated and effective response against Moscow.

These uncertainties loom over Kyiv at a time when President Zelensky urges for more European involvement. Recently, the country’s defence minister Mykhailo “Misha” Fedorov was fired after a mere six months in office. In this short period of time, the young minister had become an emblematic figure of Ukraine’s digital modernisation, investing heavily into the development of combat drones. The decision caused outrage amid Ukrainian youth who flocked the streets in protest, chanting Fedorov’s name and pointing to the obvious clash of generations within the government and army. This has further discredited Zelensky’s already dicey standing with his European counterparts, while raising concerns about the rebuild in a post-war Ukraine. 

The war in Ukraine has sparked a shared willingness within Europe to finally face the Russian threat. Whilst there is hope for a communal effort to strive towards peace within the Coalition of the Willing, the European Union and NATO, fractures remain visible, and might multiply. The future of the two leading nations of the Coalition remains unclear as political agendas mutate unpredictably, preventing them from bringing expected help to Kyiv. The EU faces the same struggles, and fails to bring cohesive sanctions due to constant opposition faced by various members. Hanging over the European theatre, Washington's position regarding the conflict remains unclear and could act as a double edged sword, depending on President Trump’s next decisions. Only careful diplomacy and common sacrifices will prevent the next tranche of aid to Ukraine collapsing like a house of cards.

Illustration: Will Allen/Europinion