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The Art of Diesel: Trump’s desperation in the Russo-Ukrainian war
Depending on who you ask, Trump’s favourite book is either the Bible or his own book, The Art of the Deal. Considering The Art of the Deal is essentially wholly ghostwritten, it is likely not worth examining in relation to Trump today. More revealing, however, is that around the time the book was published in 1987, he ran a full-page ad lambasting US foreign policy and arguing that allies should pay more of their share for their defence. A year later, in 1988, he opined in the Guardian that he would be ‘harsh on Iran’ and take over Kharg Island, which handles around 90% of Iranian oil. Almost 40 years later, he is now asking European nations to shoulder more of the burden for their defence and has instigated two wars against Iran.
Perhaps, Trump’s foreign policy is The Art of Diesel. Nine months after his administration's kidnapping of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, he hailed the ‘biggest oil deal in world history.’ In February of this year, Trump followed through on his 1988 promise and launched a war on Iran. The Art of Diesel is simple: test their defences in a twelve-day war, revealing their ineffectiveness. Then, instigate another war a few months later, kill the Ayatollah, and let the Iranian people overthrow the government which they have been protesting, and voilà, Kharg Island will be there for the taking.
What actually happened is that after the Ayatollah was killed, a massive ‘rally-around-the-flag' effect occurred in Iran; dissent has essentially become non-existent, and Kharg Island is still very much Iranian territory. The Art of Diesel may have been too good to be true. In fact, now the Democrats are playing the price game, such as Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, a key swing state, who directly tied the war in Iran to higher gas prices. Now Trump is desperate to find any way possible to lower gas prices – without accepting a humiliating peace treaty with Iran that would essentially give them control over the Strait of Hormuz, and a large portion of global oil supply.
While whether or not Trump is a Russian asset is up for question, fact is, he is the US president most open to working with Russia, often against the direct interests of America’s European partners and Ukraine. Living up to this reputation, on October 10th, Trump announced a US-Russia diesel deal to lower gas prices. The US will relieve sanctions, Russia will use third-party tankers to export diesel, such as the Greek-registered MINERVA ZEN, which left St. Petersburg last month, and gas prices will fall.
This also may be too good to be true. While Trump famously declared Ukraine has no cards, Ukraine has gotten quite adept at exploiting specific advantages to hinder Russian progress in its war. Chief amongst these advantages is Ukraine’s attacks, which have hit all but five of Russia’s oil refineries, one of its main sources of profit, and Trump’s supposed midterm lifeline. Trump, however, is well-versed in The Art of the Deal and on Sunday announced an immediate energy ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia. Unfortunately, The Art of Diplomacy requires all parties to agree, and neither side has observed this ceasefire. It’d be helpful if Trump could find a way to at least make one side agree, and Trump seems rather determined to make Ukraine bend, instead of Russia—surely coincidentally.
Cue Trump’s intensified attacks on Zelenskyy, arguing the Ukrainian leader should step down and pave the way for elections, as Trump insists Zelensky ‘could have settled this thing many times.’ Zelenskyy, who again apparently has no cards, responded by saying that Russia should observe a 60-day ceasefire, during which Ukraine would hold elections. Russia, of course, refused, arguing they want a peace deal (which they have previously halted at pretty much every juncture).
This sad, pathetic saga reveals several illuminating things about the war in Ukraine, and Trump’s actions regarding it. While Trump has been insistent that Ukraine can’t defend itself without American aid (not dissimilar to that 1987 advertisement), Ukraine has gotten adept at asymmetrical warfare and playing the diplomatic game. It could be said that Zelenskyy has mastered The Art of Diplomacy. By providing what reasonable conditions for elections are, and Russia inevitably denying these reasonable conditions, Trump is unable to legitimately make a case against Ukraine. This inability hinders his attempts to use this US-Russia diesel deal to ameliorate gas prices at home and thus refocuses the midterms on his disastrous attempt at The Art of Diesel.
It also severely challenges Russian rhetoric. With its consistent refusals of any attempt at peace, Russian narratives around the war fall flat not just in the US, where notorious Ukraine-sceptic and Trump ally Laura Loomer has reversed her criticisms of Zelenskyy, but also in Europe. As far-right and Eurosceptic forces seem ready to win record vote shares in Spain, France and Poland within the next year, and are likely to be more sceptical of support for Ukraine, pro-European forces can tie this to Trump. Trump has repeatedly promised to end aid, claimed he could end the war in a day, and argued that Ukraine has no cards. NATO still exists, the war continues, and Ukraine seems to have more cards than Trump thought. This shows the complete bankruptcy of far-right arguments. Pro-European forces should constantly make this point. After all, Trump has been anathema before, such as in Canada.
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