Les Républicains, Trying to Stay Alive

French politics - ever volatile, fascinating and changing - has been stewing over the unclear outlook for the 2027 presidential elections since Marine Le Pen was barred from running. The current French center-right, represented by Les Républicains, appears to have opted for a further rightward shift with the election of Bruno Retailleau, the current Minister of the Interior, as party leader. This political force is desperately struggling to regain political relevance in a highly polarised France. Since its fall from power in 2012, under its former moniker the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP), and despite its refoundation in 2015 under its current name, the French center-right has watched in agony and perplexity as the far right, represented by the National Rally, has seized the space and popular power that once belonged to it. This new leader, who in turn appears poised to become the presidential candidate, will have only two years to make the internal changes necessary to try to raise from ashes the political force descended from Charles de Gaulle.

Les Républicains have had a rather complicated existence since their disastrous performance in the 2017 and 2022 elections, failing to make it into the presidential runoffs and becoming a junior partner of Emmanuel Macron's current centrist government. Despite holding significant positions in the current administration since its inception, their performance at the national level has been rocky and even embarrassing, considering what happened at the end of last year with the removal of Michel Barnier as Prime Minister after less than 100 days in office. This centre-right force faces a significant challenge in demonstrating that it is on par with the parties that preceded it.

Minister Bruno Retailleau could take advantage of the leadership chaos that has been plaguing his far-right rival, the National Rally, to organise his party and present it as an alternative to the hard-right vote. The cause of the chaos, Marine Le Pen’s disqualification for misusing public funds via fictitious jobs in the European Parliament, presents a classic law and order target for Les Républicains. The cracks in the National Rally's armour are notable, and although Le Pen's heir, Jordan Bardella, enjoys the same level of support as his mentor in the current electoral polls, this need not prevent Les Républicains from benefitting from this political earthquake.

This scenario raises a fundamental question for Bruno Retailleau's next actions at the helm of his party. Could it be that, to win over the voters of the National Rally, Les Républicains will have to shift further to the right? This thought generates as much curiosity as it does confusion. Les Républicains cannot and should not consider it attractive to imitate and/or take part in the current political discourse of the National Rally, which has proven to be anchored in a xenophobic, Islamophobic, and exclusionary rhetoric that undermines the democratic values ​​of the Republic.

Without a doubt, Les Républicains must learn to be a modern party, advocating for a healthy conservatism that reflects democratic values ​​and openness to diversity. So far, they have proven reasonable in reaching agreements with the Macron government, providing a small but strong support to prevent its collapse. Furthermore, unlike their historic rival on the other side of the political spectrum, Le Parti Socialiste, they have not suffered a crushing setback that has forced them to become one of many parties grouped together and lost in a grand coalition like the latter's New Popular Front (NFP). Today, more than ever, the centre-right must remain steadfast in its resolve and not desperately seek to be a twisted alternative to what is currently toxic for democracy, both in France and the rest of Europe, and even the entire world.

Les Républicains must deeply reflect on their identity. They must demonstrate that they are stronger than the tides of demagoguery and populism. They must seek to become the democratic guardian of the political space they currently represent. Finally, they must remember that in the face of tyranny, in this case clearly personified by the discourse of the far right, the French Republic’s survival will only be worthwhile if it endures through the strength of its three great pillars: liberté, égalité, and fraternité.

Illustration by Will Allen/Europinion