The United States presidential elections are just around the corner and the Latino vote continues to be a topic of much discussion, notwithstanding the paltry problematisation it has undergone. It must be understood that the Latino vote is not monolithic, that is, that the Hispanic and Latino communities do not vote en bloc for a single party like a herd. One might think that given the xenophobic and discriminatory speeches of former Republican President Donald Trump both in the past and currently regarding migrants from Latin America, voting citizens of Mexican, Cuban, Guatemalan, Puerto Rican, Colombian, Venezuelan and other origins would not vote for a party that broadcasts such bile. For better or worse this type of language does not in itself prevent large numbers of American citizens of Latin American origin from voting for the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement. There are certain relevant keys to analyze in order to understand the behavior of the Latino vote and its weight in US presidential elections.
First, there is the level of the participation of the Latino vote in the presidential elections. Its role is essential for both the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in their quest to reach the White House. According to the statistical argument of journalist Jorge Ramos, Republicans depend more on the Latino vote than Democrats. In his book, “Stranger - The Challenge of a Latino Immigrant in the Trump Era” (2018), the Mexican-American journalist and author argues that any Republican candidate needs to obtain more than 33% of the Hispanic-Latino vote to win the presidency. That has been the case in every election since 1980, with the exceptions of 1988 and 2016. According to a Pew Research Center article from January 10, 2024, Hispanic-Latinos have grown at the second-fastest rate of any major racial and ethnic group in the American electorate since the 2020 elections; an estimated 36.2 million are eligible to vote in this year's election.
For a better visualisation of the behaviour of the Latino vote, below is a breakdown of how this bloc has voted from the 1980 elections to 2020.
Levels of Latino electoral participation are largely contingent on mobilisation. Candidate personalities and material proposals can be relevant points to mobilise this group. However, its heterogeneity is what makes it fascinating. Factors such as the cultural, religious, generational, economic as well as political background are what differentiate the Latino vote within itself. The Mexican vote can be totally opposite to the Cuban vote for the reasons previously raised, the same with the Puerto Rican and Colombian votes, to mention a few. The state of residence also greatly influences the inclination of the Latino vote. Clearly the inclination and mobilisation of the Latino vote in California is completely different from the Latino vote in Texas, Florida and New York, both due to their population numbers, diversity of origins as well as their partisan affinities.
For a better visualisation of the behaviour of the Latino vote, below is a show of how the Latino vote was distributed in the states in the 2020 presidential elections.
The Latino vote seems to occupy the upper end of electoral dynamism. It is also, particularly for the Republicans, of extraordinary importance for clinching a presidential victory. Democrats and Republicans will have little choice but to shower this agglomeration of voter blocs housed under the ‘Latino’ banner with policy concessions if they want to win. The group’s sheer size demands such offerings and therefore political parties at both the national and state level must reach out to them to listen to their demands and needs. Campaign strategies towards this group must go beyond the existing political dispute that exists through the xenophobic and discriminatory discourse brought by the Republican Party. Since it is clear that despite the fact that this generates a negative impact on the elections, it may not be enough to prevent certain groups of the Latino vote from being inclined to vote for this party in 2024, as was the case in 2020 and 2016. Unfortunately for the democrats Latino voters seem just as, if not more, concerned with security and the economy as they are with their rights and freedoms. With Trump having grown his Latino vote share at every election, and now matching George Bush’s 2004 height for the highest Republican Latino vote share in the last 4+ decades, all eyes should be on this most crucial of voter blocs.
Image: Wikimedia Commons/Voice of America (A. Shaker, Image 11)
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