Just How Hard Would It Be To Make Andy Burnham PM?

Before he became the UK’s most famous metro mayor, Andy Burnham was just a regular politician, an MP. This Andy Burnham was a rather unremarkable politician, a man who tried and failed (miserably) to become leader of his party. Having packed his bags and left Westminster long ago, Burnham has now remade himself into a titan of Labour politics in the North. He is now a metro mayor with unmatched powers, one who also commands the attention of many, especially in Labour politics. With the current state of the Labour party and its leader, this profile has made him, once again, the talk of Westminster and the wider country. It now looks less a question of if the party will move to commit political regicide, than when (my bet is this idea will be stress tested when Starmer loses the Senedd, an institution that is almost as Labour as it is Welsh). There is however, a glaring problem for Burnham and the growing numbers who are considering a coup to install him a leader: the man they are betting it all on currently can’t become leader of the Labour Party.

The rules of the Labour party are clear. To be leader of the party, or mount a challenge to the leadership, you must be a sitting MP. Without a seat in the commons, there is no route to the leadership. This is because in parliamentary systems, confidence is everything, a leader must command the support of their majority to enjoy their time in Downing Street. As a result, Burnham, currently stuck in the patchwork political system of devolution, cannot mount a challenge to Starmer, let alone become party leader and PM. Burnham and Starmer exist in two political arenas that are worlds apart, worlds that keep Starmer safe from Burhnam. This a fact few seem to acknowledge, and a fact that when you consider it, would make any of the past conservative bloodletting look like child’s play.

Assuming Burnham does have ambitions to become leader, something he has very clearly stated he does, he would have leave his devolved kingdom behind and return to Westminster. The first step in this Herculean process would require a parliamentary seat to become available. Of course, Burnham, with his power, could pressure an MP to vacate their seat (preferably as safe a seat as possible), but this process in itself would not be an easy step. Few if any MPs would be willing to give up a seat, and a safe one at that. In the event he finds a willing Labour MP, this would be merely the first, and arguably easiest, step which Burnham will have to take. 

In the scenario of events where Burnham finds a seat, he will then have to endure the party selection process. This is a process which can and would be incredibly chaotic, mainly because Burnham, a man who is positioning himself to commit political regicide, would have to secure the seat via the candidate selection panel - which is stacked with Starmer loyalists. For anyone not versed in National Executive Committee and candidate selection politics, which is many, it is a fascinatingly ruthless process. Starmer and his allies on the NEC have exercised unparalleled control over the party’s candidate selection taking unprecedented moves to deselect those who could be a thorn in his side. If the panel ever receives Burnham’s application it would be faced with two choices that will split the party either way. The panel, knowing Burnham will challenge Starmer, can reject Burnham and create open warfare in an already fragile party, or allow the ascent of a man who could bring down the man they support, even the entire government. Either way there will be chaos. 

Securing the Labour nomination is not the end of the story either, as he will then run into yet another challenge: the election which could catapult him into the commons. This election should be an easy one for Burnham, he is a man loved by voters of all kinds - his last election results back this up. Yet, even with his popularity, Burnham will be running on a brand that has hit rock bottom. Starmer and his Labour government command visceral disapproval from voters. This disapproval is so huge it would all but ensure what should be a simple by-election into a tight battle. Reform, who are riding high in the polls, would eye this opportunity to knock out a huge name, and prove they are the answer to Labour’s woes. As a result, Burnham and his ambitions will have to face down an electorate that could go any way.

Assuming Burnham manages to vault all the way to Westminster he will then have the means to challenge Starmer. How or when this occurs, however, is another fraught question. Unlike the conservative party, which has demonstrated the process by which it dethrones leaders over and over, the Labour Party has no ironclad process to dispatch a leader. The parliamentary party, if it wishes, can trigger a vote of confidence in the leader, but this is not binding and past leaders have simply ignored a vote of confidence, even after losing in a landslide. If Burnham took this route, he may well have the support of the parliamentary party, but Starmer could, as he does so often with polling, simply look the other way. Alternatively, Starmer, facing open revolt by a party he must command the support of, may resign and trigger an open leadership race which Burnham, and others, would contest.

As a result, the surest way Burnham could finish the job would be to launch a straight shooting leadership challenge. To do this he would need to secure a minimum of 80 Labour MPs (20%) to initiate a challenge of this kind. This process would then see Burnham take on the very man who nominated his candidacy a decade ago, and a man who asked for his endorsement in 2020. Heading into a ballot, Burnham, backed by the membership, would all but walk into Downing Street as leader of the party he has long sought to lead. 

There is however, one final caveat to these events. Assuming the 2026 local elections are a bloodbath, Starmer will come under immense pressure and the party will likely want to stress test its desire to replace him more seriously than ever before. Losing councillors and councils left right and centre is humiliating enough, losing the Senedd would, however, be the ultimate humiliation for a Labour leader. As a result, Burnham would have to undertake these moves within a matter of months, to ensure he was in place before the local elections, or any other intervening event.

You can be sure that if Andy Burnham moves to become an MP, he has every intent of taking on Starmer. After all, who would give up being ‘king of the North’ to become an MP trapped in the confines of Westminster. Whether Burnham wishes to undertake this massive task is another question entirely. The path he would walk to become leader would not be easy for him, or the party. In fact, it could end up creating more problems than it solves. But, if he can successfully traverse his way from Mayor of Greater Manchester to MP, and then leader of the Labour Party, maybe just maybe, Andy Burnham is the man to pull Britain out of its current slump.

Illustration: Will Allen/Europinion