Is The World’s Most Successful Political Party About To Lose Its Crown?

When you hear the moniker ‘world’s most successful political party’, you may initially think of some well-known authoritarian regimes. 

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been going strong for almost 76 years, governing the People’s Republic of China since 1949. The CCP’s record is just beaten by the Worker’s Party of Korea (WPK), which has ruled over the North Korean people since 1948. 

There are signs that the Kim family dynasty may be losing its grip on the Hermit Kingdom. Recent election results in 2023 showed a shock decrease in support to only 99.91% of the vote – rumour on the street is that Kim is looking for a new spin doctor. 

Discounting dictatorial regimes, some democratically elected parties have performed consistently well. For example, the Liberal-Democratic Party of Japan (LDP) has led the government for almost its entire existence. 

The party traditionally named ‘world’s most successful political party’ is the Conservative and Unionist Party. Emerging as a coherent entity in the 1830s, the Conservative Party has been the dominant political force in Britain for nearly 200 years. 

But, alas, none of the above are true winners of the crown. There is a party that has outperformed even the bastion of success that is the Tory Party. One which might surprise the most avid political enthusiast.

That party, ladies and gentlemen, is Welsh Labour. 

Since the 1922 general election, Welsh Labour has won a plurality of seats in every Westminster and Senedd election in Wales. Over a 100 years of unparalleled political dominance that might make even President Xi a bit jealous. 

Having led every Welsh government since devolution and most recently taking 84% of seats in the 2024 general election; the electoral map of Wales is consistently swathed in red Labour colours, especially in South Wales.

The party traditionally had strong trade union support, being the natural party for miners and industrial workers. Even in a post-industrial Britain, Welsh Labour’s core constituencies in former industrial heartlands remain an important voting base. 

If the Conservative Party can be described as the ‘natural party of government’, then Welsh Labour can certainly make the case to be the ‘natural party of government in Wales’.

Or so it used to be. 

With a Senedd election in 2026, there are ominous signs that the crown may soon be lost, landing a potentially seismic blow to the wider Labour movement. 

Welsh Labour is currently polling third according to a recent YouGov survey, behind Plaid Cymru and Reform UK. A separate Survation poll has the party in the lead but with a greatly reduced vote share at 27%, just ahead of Reform and Plaid on 24%.

With votes potentially fragmented between three main parties and multiple smaller ones, who will form the next Welsh government is anyone’s guess. There is a possibility that Welsh Labour will not only lose the crown but be barred from the throne room completely. 

So, what’s gone wrong? How has a political behemoth been left in such a precarious position? In short, Welsh Labour has landed in the middle of a perfect storm, albeit partly one of its own makings.

The party’s record in government has been patchy at best. The Welsh NHS is in an extremely difficult state, with long waiting lists and poor performance in cancer treatment and emergency care.

The Welsh economy consistently lags behind the UK average across a range of metrics, with the difference in GDP per capita between England and Wales rising to £10,500 in 2022. Productivity remains low and the country remains overly reliant on industrial sectors that have struggled in a globalised economy. 

Welsh Labour politicians have also alienated their electorate by introducing policies that are universally unpopular. The decision to lower speed limits from 30mph to 20mph in built up areas is opposed by 72% of people, with 50% saying they strongly oppose the policy.

This may seem a minor issue compared to health or the economy but for anyone who drives in Wales, as I often do, the frequency of 20mph zones can be incredibly frustrating. It leads to a sense that the party is out of touch with the average voter, the electorate surely prefers lower NHS waiting times to draconian restrictions on driving. 

Disillusionment with the national party is also contributing to reduced support for Welsh Labour. The party has seen a precipitous drop in support in the UK polls and this is affecting its success in Wales. Devolved administrations can only isolate themselves so far from national trends which inevitably filter through to local levels.

Poor governing record and dissatisfaction with UK Labour mean voters are looking for an alternative, and Welsh Labour is haemorrhaging support on both the left and right.

Reform UK has broken through to become a major contender in the race for the Senedd. Helped by the collapse of Conservative Party support (22% of those who voted Conservative in 2024 say they will vote Reform in 2026), the party is also capturing votes in traditional Labour heartlands.

Welsh Labour has an even greater challenge on its left flank. Plaid Cymru is appealing to swathes of voters unhappy with Labour’s governing performance and looking for a new left-wing party to call home. 16% of 2024 Labour voters say they will vote Plaid, attracted by its unabashed ‘Wales first’ approach and progressive policies.

Voters want change and Welsh Labour can no longer rely on a core voting bloc in the industrial heartlands. Pivot too far left and more voters will desert for Reform, opening the door for a potential Reform-Conservative coalition (the latter is polling around 15%). Stray too far right and voters will jump ship to other left-wing parties and Welsh Labour risks handing the throne room keys to Plaid.

This leaves the party in an impossible position. It must appeal to both left and right, but without a strong record in government to fall back on this seems a difficult task.

If Welsh Labour do lose their crown, the ramifications for the wider Labour movement will be brutal. A 100 years of Welsh dominance ending when Labour enjoy a massive majority in Westminster would have seemed impossible all too recently.

Illustration by Will Allen/Europinion