Is a far-right Black Swan brewing in Northern Ireland?

The Daily Mail released an article on 8 August stating unnamed ‘intelligence officials’ had informed them of plans devised by the New Irish Republican Army (NIRA) to ethnically cleanse migrants in the coming weeks. The Canary UK found the source evidence which was used to make the assessment – an online video on Facebook produced by a known far-right conspiracy theorist claiming that ‘Loyalists and the ‘IRA’ were now’ partners seeking to ethnically cleanse immigrants.

The Canary UK was not convinced of the source’s connection with the NIRA, namely because no evidence had been given of a relation between the source (a dubious Scotsman moving in far-right circles) and the NIRA (an Irish republican socialist organisation). The Daily Mail article containing the unsourced assessment was amplified the following day by the Daily Star, and by far-right influencers on YouTube and on Facebook.

The crux of the assessment read: ‘New IRA have been very active this year in the North in attacks against the PSNI at Lurgan police station and a car bomb at Dunmurry. They have two aims: Irish independence and all migrants out’. There are a few things wrong with this anonymous ‘assessment’. 

Since 2012, there has been an average of 4 known major security incidents every year involving the NIRA – they are ostensibly not more active than usual. Security services have also consistently pointed to Saoradh as the political wing of the NIRA. Reading through their public materials, there is no indication of anti-migration sentiment: 

‘Irish reactionary right morons, who cosy up to the British far right, are trying to co-opt the rage of people from… disadvantaged communities. It might be asked how any Irish person… can stand with imperialist British agitators such as Tommy Robinson… the answer is, those who host loyalists today do so... from a shared bigotry, united only in hatred of migrants.’

The 32 County Sovereignty Movement, allegedly the political wing of the defunct Real IRA wrote in October 2025 following a Dublin anti-migrant riot: 

‘These parasites [Stormont and Dail] will continue to feed off the fear and mistrust. By falling into the manufactured divisions of religion, sectarianism and ethnicity, we the oppressed will never free ourselves from the shackles of the oppressor. We need to focus our anger at those who are creating this continued crisis, not those most affected by them.’ 

So why has this assessment been released through British tabloids? There are two possible explanations.

The first is that security services have new, classified intel that the NIRA has recently made a mutual arrangement with far-right organisations in Ireland in hopes of furthering one another’s agenda. It is not unprecedented for republican socialists to make common cause with enemies of the British state – In the 1940s, the IRA assisted Nazi Germany’s Abwehr to run intelligence operations on the island, for example. 

Yet supposedly the IRA is deeply infiltrated by covert human sources, extremely weak in its capacity to conduct terrorist activities, and lacks the support of the general populace. There would be little reason for this fragmented dissident group to link up with Russia or far-right entities responsible for violent race riots and vigilantism across the island, who are also not considered a serious threat. 

The second explanation is that security services do not have new classified intel but are instead biased in their analysis, seeking to keep focus on their long-time enemy. A stronger explanation may be found in far-right transnational networks, fusing grassroots far-right groups, Christian Nationalists, and political conservative elites together.

Indeed, a recent investigation conducted by Al Jazeera found that a member of the Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF), a Loyalist paramilitary group in Northern Ireland, had long-standing ties with a Conservative Party member and a leader at Turning Point UK. That member of the UVF was willing to discuss contract murders with Al Jazeera. That particular case is symptomatic of a wider trend of connection and activity by far-right groups in Northern Ireland, which I had written about in March and July of this year. 

Security service expertise since the 2000s has revolved around thwarting homegrown Islamism and dissident republicanism; that is the prism through which they currently see. Only in recent years has a new threat structure appeared, involving a complex transnational interplay between previous allies and disregarded foes. Without updating the prism, a brewing ‘Black Swan’ event in Northern Ireland will go unnoticed until it is too late.

Image: Wikimedia Commons/Kenneth Allen

Licence. 

No image changes made.