In Northern Ireland, Unionist-Populism is On the Rise

Political change is sweeping Europe. Nigel is rising in Great Britain. Peter replaced Viktor in Hungary. Macron is on his way out in France. Populism – defined by “people” vs. “elites”, distrust of institutions, and moral absolutism – is the connecting theme. Yet that populism is present in Northern Ireland too, which is odd for two reasons. 

First, the power-sharing institutions require party-opposites on the constitutional question to cooperate on delivering significant changes. The structures incentivise all parties to balance their posturing to the electorate with actual governance. Any populism is likely to destabilise the institutions, which has negative consequences for populist electoral support. 

Second, the region’s demography shouldn’t feasibly support populism. Northern Ireland’s entire population is around 1,903,175 people. Around 800,000 identify as British, 376,444 identify as Northern Irish, and 798,000 identify as Irish. The population is small, balanced, and spread out. Rousing a nationality-based populism becomes a technical challenge. 

Despite the challenges, it seems a populism within Unionist (British) politics is developing anyway, in the form of Jon Burrows. He is the new party leader of the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), and MLA for the North Antrim devolved constituency. Jon Burrows became leader of the UUP after an uncontested internal election in January 2026. 

If you looked to Burrows’s public messaging since then, populist themes abound. He often says the devolved politicians “for too long have looked after themselves” without singling out any one political persuasion. He mentions the “failing upwards” of “university degree” civil servants in Northern Ireland. 

These are the elements of the “elites vs. the people” and “distrust of institutions”. A “moral absolutism” is more difficult to pin down, as he sticks very closely to discussing practical issues of service delivery without overtly linking himself to historically prevalent facets of Ulster Britishness, such as Protestantism or Orangeism. 

It usually appears in discussions with Sinn Féin. When Sinn Féin MLAs raised concerns over the PSNI’s use of spit guards, he simply responded that spit guard usage cannot be discontinued as they are intended to protect officers. He also criticised Sinn Féin for refusing to visit the USA to incentivise investment, while going to China to do the same. 

Jon Burrows was little known before entering politics, and he quickly became the leader of the UUP. He presents as a plain joe “talking common sense” in a political system too long defined by elite interests and political performance. Upon starting his role, he spoke about the UUP becoming the largest Unionist party in Northern Ireland. 

He is already the second most popular leader in Northern Irish politics, slightly behind the more established Clare Hannah of the SDLP. His party still lags in the polls; it experienced only a small jump in electoral support since his arrival, mostly remaining steady. 

Assembly elections are to take place in early May 2027, which gives Burrows one year to change the situation. Currently, the incumbent DUP is suffering from a fluctuating popularity, as Unionist voters weigh up the UUP, the DUP, Alliance, and the far-right TUV. 

One risk for Burrows and his UUP is their streamlined image succeeds in crowbarring the DUP out of their lead position, but not in displacing them entirely from the Northern Ireland Executive. The DUP can refuse to implement or stymie his solutions to improve delivery in their underdog position, which they are likely to do. 

Another risk is Sinn Féin’s opportunism in developing a “nationalist front” with the new SNP and Plaid Cymru regional governments further feeds anxieties of Ulster British communities created by the Windsor Framework. Those anxieties could push Unionist voters to stick with the DUP/TUV, rather than the largely plain Burrows. 

A third risk is that he lacks the ability to offer or implement solutions to improve delivery. He excels at scrutiny, but there is no manifesto for May 2027 as of yet. Burrows criticises civil servants and the Alliance party, but he will need them to assist him with developing and implementing any changes promised in his manifesto. 

Finally, Burrows can only cater to a limited part of the population. He has an open mind on Irish language issues but combats Sinn Féin on the thornier issues of legacy and policing to play to his voters. This approach will upset Republicans – already deep in an echo chamber on policing, legacy, and reunification – in a whole new way.

There are no easy choices for Burrows or the UUP, although he seemingly plays the game quite well. The problem is that the game is broken; chronic underfunding from the central government, itself caused by wider systemic issues, has caused the breakage. It does not matter if one party is marginally better than the other; his Unionist-populism must turn to discussing delivery in the context of serious threats in Northern Ireland and across these islands.  

Image: Flickr/davesandford

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