“I need to know now, can you love me again?” – The trust doom loop within UK and EU relations

Over ten years later, Brexit remains era-defining, indirectly toppling yet another prime minister.

Starmer has resigned. A resignation catalysed by the local elections that saw Labour lose almost five times as many voters to the Greens and Liberal Democrats as to Reform UK. Pressure from the pro-EU progressives and centrists was key to the end of the Starmer project, a fact that is at the front of Andy Burnham’s mind as he plans an ascent to Downing Street and has to take over the Herculean task of normalising UK-EU relations. Yet the role of rekindling trust within the UK-EU relationship needs greater attention from the next Labour leader.

The 2016 break-up, followed by the four-year-long divorce negotiations, saw the European Union weakened by the loss of a key member state, blood in the water that has been sensed by insurgent Eurosceptic populists across the continent. In Germany, the far-right AfD polls ahead of the centre-right governing Christian Democrats. In France, the “national conservative” National Rally is the frontrunner for the 2027 presidential election. In Portugal, the hardline Chega proved itself the second-largest party at the 2025 legislative elections. All these parties blame Brussels for wasting their contributions and worsening their domestic woes; in turn, they seek to weaken the Union.

The European Commission is aware of this, knowing it cannot afford to look even weaker. The EU potentially reaching out to its needy ex-partner, putting time, effort, and precious funds into normalisation, only to have a prospective Reform government act on its promises and rip up any agreement, would be deeply damaging. Whilst the UK attempting normalisation to begin with makes the EU look strong, a Reform-led UK U-turn would validate the arguments made that the EU is wasteful and concerned with expansion rather than working for Europeans, potentially emboldening Eurosceptic forces and further destabilising an EU already faced with a war-waging Kremlin and a hostile Washington. The risk of a Farage premiership is at the forefront of the EU’s mind each time the UK comes calling.

As Reform polls first in the UK and Labour sags, the prospect of a Reform government becomes more likely in the eyes of Brussels and therefore reduces trust around normalisation between the once-scorned partners. This results in Labour being unable to make substantial progress on necessary deals, which has downstream effects on issues such as the cost of living, defence, and economic growth, further alienating pro-EU progressives and centrists. These voters then leave Labour as they feel frustration with the government over those downstream effects. As the right of UK politics is broadly more unified in its stance on Brexit, Reform’s vote stays high whilst Labour polls low. Whilst there are key issues where Labour’s failings aren’t linked to the EU, such as Palestine, the trust doom loop is still an unaddressed electoral factor that stands in the way of the UK and EU reconnecting.

This is an issue that Burnham and the Labour Party’s strategists must be conscious of, especially given his pro-EU history and renewed commitment to normalisation. Normalisation would not just be dependent on his diplomatic skills in the UK’s courting of the EU, but also on his ability to boost Labour by drawing both frustrated progressives and the disillusioned working class back into an electoral coalition fit to take the fight to Farage. Rebuilding Labour will be a sizeable task dependent on Burnham delivering on domestic issues, such as the cost of living, to drag Labour’s polling upwards and to push Reform’s downwards. Minimising the chances of a Farage-led government would serve as the act of devotion needed to break the doom loop and restore trust between the continent and its plucky island ex-lover. 

However, the road to breaking the doom loop will not be an easy one; reasserting the Labour Party as the definitive home for progressive politics with a working-class heart will require not only taking on Reform but also facing off against the Greens and the Liberal Democrats. This battle is dependent on proving that Labour is once again worthy of trust, an issue complicated by the Greens’ stated ambition to paint Burnham as a continuation of the unpopular Keir Starmer and the inevitability of Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey once again jumping into Lake Windermere to win votes.

Whatever shape the prospective Burnham premiership takes, it must have policy delivery as its focus and chart a more radical path than the last resident of 10 Downing Street; otherwise, the UK will find itself unable to woo back the EU in an era of international instability, leaving the no-longer-so-great Britain isolated and pushed between an expansive Beijing and an increasingly unpredictable Washington. If Labour is to see off Reform and the UK is to avoid continued international isolation, ultimately both London and Brussels must learn to love again.

Image: Wikimedia Commons/Tumisu

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