Hidden Sparks: Taiwan's Electoral Recall and Its Potential to Reshape Geopolitics

While the international spotlight remains fixated on the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, a recent political upheaval in an often-forgotten territory, Taiwan, is quietly reshaping geopolitics. Starting in February 2025, several Taiwanese advocacy groups launched a mass electoral recall campaign aimed at removing the so-called "pro-China" legislators, particularly those from the largest opposing party, Kuomintang (KMT). This article, therefore, seeks to analyse the origins of the recent surge in anti-communist sentiment and its implications for the US-China conflict.

To begin with, China's rising influence in Taiwanese society heightens a sense of insecurity among the population. Many Taiwanese politicians are accused of having overly close ties with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). In particular, Ma Ying-jeou, the former Chairman of KMT, frequently visits the mainland and meets with Chinese officials. China also exerts significant influence on Taiwanese society through various non-state channels. In December 2024, a prominent Taiwanese YouTuber released a documentary, providing first-hand evidence that Chinese authorities have funded some of the island's most famous influencers to manipulate public opinions and sway electoral outcomes. Later, Yaya, a Chinese immigrant residing in Taiwan, was found to have repeatedly published videos justifying China's long-advocated military actions against the island under the name of "national reunification", resulting in overwhelming public criticism. The ubiquitous influence from the mainland reinforces the public's calls for the government to take a more proactive response to strengthen the island's security.

Yet, the legislative gridlock after the 2024 election seems unable to transform the public's cries into concrete policies, which serves as a fuse to this recall campaign. Benefitting from their majority status, the Kuomintang-Taiwan People's Party (KMT-TPP) alliance proposed and passed a bill to hold the executive body accountable to parliament. Rightful as it seems, critics alleged that the extensive investigative power against the Government and the military could pose security risks to the self-ruling island. The KMT-TPP alliance later worked on drastically cutting the Central Government budget, leading to a shrinking share of GDP in the defence sector. While the duo claimed that the budget cut aimed to reduce corruption, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) supporters accused it of trying to paralyze the government, if not colluding with CCP. This widespread dissatisfaction ultimately sparked the mass electoral recall movement.

The campaign has indubitably divided Taiwanese society. Recent polls reveal that around half of the respondents voted against the recall movement, notwithstanding the ruling DPP’s rising popularity. The general dissatisfaction with the DPP's alleged attempt to weaken constitutional checks and balances may provide China an opportunity to gain favour among the island's population. The spokeswoman of China's Taiwan Affairs Office criticised the DPP by employing similar rhetoric to the KMT-TPP alliance, accusing the campaign of  reinforcing "green terror" and "green dictatorship". Although Taiwan often ranks as the most democratic territory in Asia, continuous and exaggerated criticism may distort public perceptions of its socio-political development and further polarise society. This situation could create a favourable environment for China to promote its narrative of "peaceful reunification", a mighty goal that aims to turn the island into its unsinkable fortress against the US' expansion of influence in the Pacific Ocean.

Despite its polarising effects on society, the recall movement has facilitated historical cooperation between the pro-independence and pro-ROC (Republic of China) camps under the banner of anti-communism. Independence activists, primarily young DPP supporters, call for creating an independent Taiwanese state instead of continuously embracing the ROC, a mainland Chinese regime long led by the KMT that retreated to Taiwan in 1949 following its defeat in the Chinese Civil War. On the other hand, ROC supporters endorse the “reunification of China” under the Three Principles of the People, the political doctrine of the KMT, which distinguishes them from contemporary KMT supporters who prefer maintaining the status quo across the Taiwan Strait. Although the supporter base for ROC’s reunification of China remains limited, and the two camps’ cooperation is still in its embryonic stage, it would nevertheless be an underlying threat in the eyes of CCP, a political party that historically profited from class and social divisions.

Unlike China, the US has remained a silent observer in this political chaos, notwithstanding that the recall election results will likely affect the Trump administration's policy towards Taiwan, especially given current Pacific tensions. Preoccupied by the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, the US may have temporarily overlooked the island. Nevertheless, in the eyes of the White House the defeat of the ruling DPP in this electoral recall battle may be seen as the population's acquiescence, if not support, of China's rising influence on the island, which could prompt Washington to reexamine the moral grounds and security risks of continuing to support and arm the island. Coupled with the recent electoral victory of South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, a pro-China politician, the DPP's defeat may disrupt America's strategic mapping in the Indo-Pacific region, threatening its status as global hegemon.

Taiwan is undeniably a keystone of the international tug of war developing in the Pacific. The 23-million population is about to vote, a decision that will not only re-determine the composition of their parliament but also reshape the landscape of great power allegiances in East Asia. The world is closely observing their choice.

Illustration by Will Allen/Europinion