Goodbye, centre? The Rise of Germany's political alternatives

Recent state elections held in Germany revealed a stark contrast between the two states: Berlin and Saxony-Anhalt. While 25.7% of the capital supported the democratic socialist party Die Linke on 20 September, 43.8% of the eastern state Saxony-Anhalt voted for the far-right populist AfD on 6 September. Both were significant electoral breakthroughs as it was the first time Die Linke finished first in a state election, while the AfD recorded its highest state-election vote share to date. 

The election results of Saxony-Anhalt and Berlin highlight the growing trend of polarisation and dissatisfaction with the traditionally dominant centre-right CDU and centre-left SPD. The CDU and the SPD have been dominating politics in Germany for the better half of a century. However, both parties faced a major setback in the recent Berlin elections: the CDU's vote fell to 18.8%, losing its majority, and the SPD managed only 12.1% of the vote, while Die Linke finished first with 25.7%.

Die Linke and the AfD both achieved electoral success by focusing on distinct problems during their campaigns. In Berlin, amidst the rising cost of living and the ongoing housing crisis, Die Linke campaigned on affordable housing, rent regulation and expropriating the holdings of residential housing companies. As a result, roughly one quarter of Berliners supported the socialist party that focused on the capital’s most pressing issues. In contrast,  the AfD mostly built its campaign around immigration and asylum policy in Saxony-Anhalt—the party’s central agenda across all German states. However, the far-right party also raised issues of economic insecurity, namely the recession and decline in industrial and regional development, especially in the former East Germany.Coupled with distrust of established parties and political institutions, Die Linke and the AfD’s success hardly comes as a surprise. Although the AfD and Die Linke are ideologically miles apart, both parties benefitted from voters’ disillusionment with Germany’s centrist parties. 

Germany has long been characterised by political stability, with the CDU and the SPD dominating federal politics for decades. But as the party system has become more fragmented, their dominance has weakened. The AfD’s rise has been the most profound political change in Germany since reunification. However, Die Linke’s success in Berlin shows that the change is not necessarily about Germany becoming more right-wing: voters are also looking for ‘Alternatives for Germany’ on the left. The German public is searching for a party to address their concerns, rather than relying on the incumbent CDU and SPD, which formed four grand coalitions since 2005 and, over time, got blurred into one entity in the eyes of the electorate. 

The prime days of the traditional centre may be behind, but centrist parties remain important for coalition building. Although both Die Linke and the AfD achieved electoral success, neither party won an absolute majority and therefore can’t govern alone. Neither party has been able to form a government, since they need coalition partners to do so. The prospects for finding coalition partners differ considerably for the far-right and the far-left. 

In Berlin, Die Linke entered discussions with the SPD and the Greens, despite ideological differences. The AfD faces an uphill battle since all major parties have refused to form a coalition with the AfD. So far, this political commitment, referred to as the ‘Brandmauer’ (firewall), has prevented the AfD from forming a government. However, it has not stopped the far-right party from gaining political power: On 6 October, an AfD politician became president of Saxony-Anhalt's state parliament for the first time, demonstrating that the firewall does not necessarily exclude the party from gaining institutional influence. Yet, the AfD—for now—has been unable to secure the more important position of leading the state government. 

Die Linke, meanwhile, has a viable path into government through a three-way coalition with the Greens and the SPD, while the AfD remains excluded from government. This difference suggests that even though the traditional parties are no longer the dominant parties, they still determine government formation. 

If recent election results from Berlin and Saxony-Anhalt are anything to go by, Germany may be saying goodbye to a political era in which the mainstream parties are taken for granted.

Image: Wikimedia Commons/Sandro Halank

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