European Disunion: Why the UK’s pro-Europeans should beyond rejoining

Despite the fatal referendum result in 2016, pro-European political forces still exist within the UK’s foreign policy debate: from progressives within the Green Party to prominent Labour Party factions to Europe’s strongest traditional advocates, the Liberal Democrats. Pro-Europeanism is not dead, and many of these forces have focused on undoing the disastrous 2016 result by pledging to one day rejoin the European Union (EU). This pledge does not take into account that the Europe of 2016 is not the Europe of 2026, and within that decade, everything has changed.

Populist right-wing political parties have been on the rise across the continent, promising easy solutions to complex problems, often at the expense of vulnerable minorities. In Germany, the Alternative for Germany (AfD), a far-right party counting fascists among its ranks, has won state elections in Thuringia, Saxony-Anhalt, and most recently Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. Whilst likely to be locked out of regional government due to Germany’s proportional representation system requiring coalitions if a majority cannot be reached. But their popularity, combined with worrying polling, shows the far right is a genuine electoral threat to the German establishment on a federal level. In France, the far right is also on the march as the Rassemblement National(RN), a rebranded party that was co-founded by former SS members, is polled to win the upcoming French presidential election after just missing out with 41% in 2022. It looks increasingly likely that the Franco-German engine that drives the EU may be steered by malignant forces if the RN and AfD enter government.

 Whilst the UK has its own issue with right-wing populists, current polling suggests that the Labour Party may just hang on to power if it enters a coalition with other parties, including the Liberal Democrats and the Greens. All three of those political forces, with their varying views on Europe, must realise that attempting to rejoin would take years of negotiations that may result in a UK led by progressives and centrists eventually walking into a European Union led by the populist right. A union led by parties with dangerous views on minorities is not a union progressives and liberal centrists should consider joining.

 The clear opposing view is that because Brussels is slipping towards being controlled by these nefarious forces, a UK led by progressive and liberal pro-Europeans must join as the necessary counterweight—that we should rejoin to prevent the worst of the AfD’s and RN’s agendas if those parties attempted to carry them out on a continental level. However, this view is flawed. The UK would not be able to prevent EU policy drifting to the extremities of the political right for long. Since most major EU policy is formed by all members agreeing, it could be suggested that the UK would veto extremist policies. Despite this mechanism, the EU has proven willing to criticise or even punish states who repeatedly veto policy. For example, Hungary, then ruled by the national conservative Fidesz party under Viktor Orbán, repeatedly vetoed aid to Ukraine, which, combined with domestic democratic backsliding, caused the EU to withhold €6.3 billion in funds to Hungary. A democratic EU using appropriate measures against a more authoritarian state. However, what would stop a more authoritarian, populist-right-led EU from using the same measures against a democratic, centrist UK? 

And there is another issue to address. The populist-right Brothers of Italy (FdI), a party tied to Italy’s fascist history, has been governing Italy since 2022. Since then, the FdI has successfully pushed the EU further rightwards. We can thus assume that the RN or AfD would join FdI in pushing the EU further right. However, both of those parties, particularly the AfD, are intensely Eurosceptic, so they may instead try to dismantle the EU. If an AfD-led government went ahead with plans to leave the Euro or end freedom of movement, there would be severe economic backlash not just in Germany but across the entirety of the EU, including a recently rejoined UK. Even if German courts blocked those policies on the grounds that they would be unconstitutional, the mere attempt at such an insanity would likely still cause a market meltdown and a subsequent shock that the UK could do without.

These hypotheticals, of the EU being twisted by these forces or being destroyed from within, remain hypothetical. However, as the populist right takes victory after victory and exerts its influence, the UK’s pro-Europeans should be increasingly wary of the idea of rejoining.

 In an ideal world, the UK’s future would be back in the centre of a strong EU, committed to championing human rights in the face of a hostile USA and expansionist China. Yet that ideal remains a distant dream, as the facts point towards Europe going down a more twisted path despite past generations’ warnings. UK foreign policy must therefore realise that rejoining the EU now, in a futile hope of counterbalancing an insurgent far right, is by no means practical, and it would not be in the UK’s best interest to rejoin a union that risks wounding our already sluggish economy. 

The answer to the question of what the UK must do instead of rejoining lies across the Atlantic, not with the Americans but with our Commonwealth friends, the Canadians. The invitation given to Canada to be the first-ever ‘associate member’ of the EU has the capacity to create a partnership that ties Canada to the EU when it benefits them but keeps them out of the EU proper. The UK should seek to emulate Canada by forging a relationship that is in the best economic interests of everyday Britons, whilst safeguarding against the possibility of an EU led by the populist right.

Europe is at its best when united in purpose and vision, yet the dark path it is going down tempts disunion and disorder. The UK cannot afford to rejoin as long as this remains a possibility. Britain cannot afford another economic shock, and we must choose our own path—a path that leads to a new partnership and foreign policy that works for us all.

Image: Wikimedia Commons/Dave Kellam

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