Europe’s Moment of Truth: A Strategic and Moral Stake in Myanmar

Myanmar’s civil war may seem distant to Europe, but it represents a crucial test of the European Union’s values and interests in the Indo-Pacific. The conflict’s outcome will reverberate across Southeast Asia, a region of rising economic importance, and will shape the global struggle between democracy and authoritarianism. So far, Europe’s response to the Myanmar crisis has been largely principled on paper but limited in action. As Myanmar’s struggle reaches a turning point, the EU faces mounting pressure to move from observer to participant. This final instalment in FONDEMOS’s tripartite analysis for Europinion looks at why Myanmar’s fate matters strategically and morally for Europe, and how the EU might translate its lofty principles into concrete support for democracy in Southeast Asia.

From Moral Posture to Strategic Engagement

To date, European governments have mostly confined themselves to condemnation and sanctions regarding Myanmar. The EU swiftly denounced the 2021 coup and imposed rounds of targeted sanctions on junta leaders and military-owned companies. Aid programmes with the regime were suspended, and European officials regularly decried the junta’s atrocities in international forums. Yet, beyond this moral stance, Europe has hesitated to deploy its political or economic weight to influence Myanmar’s course. Unlike the U.S. or China, the EU lacks a direct military presence or hefty aid leverage in Myanmar. Still, critics note that Europe has powerful tools short of force, from development aid and trade incentives to diplomatic clout, that it has so far used sparingly. The result is a policy gap: bold rhetoric about supporting Myanmar’s democracy but a cautious approach on the ground. Given the high stakes, this low-key approach risks being an opportunity missed. Simply standing by in Myanmar’s hour of need would both undermine the EU’s credibility as a champion of democracy and forfeit potential influence in a pivotal region. The time is ripe: Myanmar’s resistance has never been closer to toppling the junta, but it desperately needs international partners to sustain its fight and to plan for rebuilding the country afterwards. European engagement now could make a tangible difference in tipping the balance toward a democratic outcome.

Strategic Interests in Asia’s “New Centre of the World”

Principles aside, Europe has a powerful strategic incentive to deepen its foothold in Southeast Asia, and Myanmar’s situation is a key entry point. The Indo-Pacific and Asia-Pacific, more broadly, have been dubbed “the new centre of the world” by diplomats and analysts for their burgeoning economic and geopolitical clout. Southeast Asia sits at the heart of this dynamic region. With over 680 million people, more than the EU’s population, and some of the fastest-growing economies on the planet, ASEAN countries offer immense opportunities. Nations like Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand are already among the world’s economic success stories. Even Myanmar, once peace is restored, holds significant promise with its fertile agricultural lands and abundant natural resources (from hydrocarbons to rare earth minerals). For Europe, which is seeking to diversify its global partnerships and reduce over-reliance on any single trade partner, Southeast Asia is a natural fit. Engaging with a democratising Myanmar could open the door to new markets and investments, from infrastructure projects to green technologies, in a country rich in untapped potential.

There is also a grand strategic rationale. In the emerging era of U.S.-China rivalry, many Southeast Asian nations are eager for a third partner to maintain balance. The EU, with its emphasis on multilateralism and fair investment, can appeal to countries wary of becoming too dependent on Beijing or Washington. If Europe were to step up its presence and support in Myanmar and its neighbours, it would reinforce its Indo-Pacific Strategy with action. This strategy, announced by the EU in 2021, calls for a greater European role in Asia to uphold a “rules-based international order” and promote sustainable development. Thus far, the strategy has been more conceptual than practical. Myanmar presents a chance to concretise Europe’s Indo-Pacific vision. By helping resolve a conflict at the crossroads of South and Southeast Asia, the EU would demonstrate it is serious about being a global actor beyond its immediate neighbourhood. 

A Duty to Support Democracy and Stability

Beyond realpolitik, European values are on the line in Myanmar. The EU has long branded itself as a union of values committed to human rights and the idea that people should have the right to choose their own destinies. Nowhere is this principle more starkly tested than in Myanmar, where a people’s uprising is trying to overturn a military dictatorship. To abandon Myanmar’s democrats in their darkest hour would be to miss a moral duty and betray Europe’s ideals. Conversely, robust European support for those fighting for freedom, even in a far-off land, reaffirms the universality of democratic values. It sends a message to authoritarian regimes everywhere that the free world will not stand idle when tyrants gun down peaceful protesters or bomb villages into submission. A democratic Myanmar would likely align more naturally with Europe and the West, forging an additional link in the chain of Indo-Pacific partners committed to an open international order. It would remove a regime whose brutality and refugee-generating wars threaten regional stability. Recall that Myanmar’s turmoil has spilled over in the past, from Rohingya refugee crises affecting Bangladesh and beyond to illicit flows of drugs and weapons. Stability in Asia directly affects global stability. The fall of a junta and the rise of a representative government in Naypyidaw would also chip away at the narrative of authoritarian resurgence. Each successful democratic transition is an implicit win for the EU’s worldview. And as European officials have pointed out, every new democracy can become Europe’s natural ally on the world stage.

In conclusion, the future of Myanmar concerns Europe more than distance might imply. This conflict in Southeast Asia is a microcosm of larger trends, the contest between democracy and autocracy, the shifting balance of power in the Indo-Pacific, and the test of international commitment to human rights. By stepping up its support for Myanmar’s democratic resistance, Europe would not only be doing right by its principles but also smartly advancing its strategic position in the world. As Myanmar’s shadow government and brave citizens press for a democratic breakthrough, a greater European presence, politically, financially, and morally, could help accelerate the downfall of a vicious junta and pave the way for lasting peace. Conversely, standing aside would mean not just failing a moral obligation but also forsaking influence in one of the globe’s most dynamic regions. The choice is a defining one: it is Europe’s moment of truth in Myanmar, with ramifications that will be felt far beyond Burma’s borders.

Illustration by Will Allen/Europinion