Chile's November Presidential Elections Are Set To Tear Its Politics Apart

Chile is facing its most complicated political landscape since the return of democracy. The outlook for the presidential elections in November is becoming increasingly severe. For the second time, the presidential race appears to be fully contested between the two most polarising political forces in Chile. This South American country seems to be suffering the upheavals that many others have already experienced, with high partisan polarisation and traditional options relegated to oblivion. The Chilean electorate, which for more than three decades voted for large centre-right and centre-left coalitions, now seems to be opting for partisan representation at both ends of the political spectrum.

Chile is a country that stands out for the uniqueness of its political system, which has evolved since the end of Augusto Pinochet’s 17-year dictatorship and the return to democracy in 1990. Currently, the president is elected for a four-year term via a two-round voting system, in which a runoff is held if no candidate surpasses 50% plus one vote in the first round. Immediate reelection is not allowed, but non-consecutive reelection is permitted. Through this particular method of electing its leaders, power in Chile has historically alternated cyclically every four years between centre-right and centre-left forces. However, since the 2021 elections, those traditional alternatives have been largely pushed aside, with the emergence of parties and candidates positioned at both ends of the political spectrum.

In the most recent presidential election cycle, the hard-left candidate Gabriel Boric emerged victorious, facing his ideological opposite, the hard-right candidate José Antonio Kast. Due to constitutional restrictions, Boric is barred from running for a consecutive second term. The president's party, the Broad Front, suffered significant losses in the primaries of its major coalition; his political legacy will now be carried by his former Minister of Labour and current presidential candidate, Jeannette Jara, a member of the Communist Party of Chile. This marks the first time in Chilean history that this party leads a major left-wing coalition. Jara is expected to compete in the upcoming election alongside Kast, who leads the Republican Party and heads the main right-wing coalition in Chile. These two controversial figures are joined by minor candidates who likely have little chance of advancing to the runoff. Both frontrunners are making considerable efforts to present themselves as moderate to appeal to Chile’s political centre and secure broader support.

Jeannette Jara has tried to distance herself from her party, even going so far as to publicly declare, "I am not the candidate of the Communist Party, but of the entire centre-left coalition in the country." A manoeuvre that may or may not bear fruit in attracting moderate voters and could also generate friction within the ranks of her political movement. Her quest for the presidency is undoubtedly an uphill battle, adding to the other factors that since the 2006 elections, no governing coalition has held power for two consecutive terms.

José Antonio Kast, like his rival, intends to address the moderate electorate with a more pragmatic image than in his previous campaign. This, of course, does not overlook the political space to his right, which is being competed for by two far-right political parties, which, while smaller in number, could take votes away from him in the early stages of the race. His political party has been growing alongside President Boric's plummeting popularity, which strongly suggests he has a good chance of winning the presidency this time around. Given this scenario, Kast would join the list of hard-right victories in Latin America, as in the most recent cases in Argentina and Ecuador.

Beyond the specific candidates, what is truly worrying is that Chile seems to have fallen into the same trap that has already ensnared several democracies in the region: the false dilemma between ideological extremes that promise quick solutions to structural problems. Neither the covert authoritarianism of the hard right nor the ideological rigidity of the radical left seem to offer real answers to the needs of an increasingly distrustful, demanding, and diverse population. The void left by traditional parties has not been filled with solid projects or inclusive leadership, but rather by polarising discourses that deepen social divisions. In this context, the risk is not only of making poor choices, but of normalising a politics of entrenchment where everything is reduced to defeating the adversary, regardless of the institutional or social cost.

Chile, a country that has faced great challenges and has gradually been rebuilding its democracy since the end of Augusto Pinochet's dictatorship, now faces a perfect political storm, in which opposing poles attack each other fiercely and the political centre is increasingly fractured. If the country fails to rebuild a common space for democratic dialogue and political cooperation, it risks falling into a spiral of sterile confrontations that compromise its governability, its institutions, and, above all, the well-being of its people. Chile's future will depend not only on who wins in November, but on whether the country is able to resist the temptations of populism and polarisation to rebuild a common project based on moderation, respect, and democratic stability.

Illustrations by Will Allen/Europinion