AUKUS Is Becoming Reality – The US Military-Industrial Complex Has Crossed The Rubicon

On December 9^th an inconspicuous press release by Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) and Babcock International quietly announced a huge shift in US defence procurement. For the first time the US nuclear submarine program will manufacture significant components outside the states. The announcement confirmed that complex hull assemblies for the new US navy’s (USN) Virginia block VI nuclear submarines will be produced in Babcock’s Rosyth dock in Scotland. 

For defence observers it’s a Rubicon moment. Historically the US–UK nuclear relationship has shared intelligence and missile & nuclear propulsion technology. However, the production of the submarines themselves has remained entirely separate, jealously guarded by domestic industrial bases. Therefore, the announcement that sections of the premier American hunter-killer submarine (SSN) will be built beyond the shores of the East Coast signifies a transition from an alliance of cooperation to an alliance of production. Furthermore, it is the first tangible manifestation of AUKUS Pillar 1; the creation of a unified trans-Atlantic submarine industrial base capable of meeting the expansion required to counter emerging Indo-Pacific threats (China). AUKUS itself is a tripartite treaty seeking to primarily arm Australia with nuclear powered submarines. This future class of submarine (SSN-AUKUS) will be the same as the replacement for the UK’s current Astute class and have significant overlap with the future US navy’s nuclear attack submarines (SSN-X). 

So why the shift in what historically has been an extremely protected sector by the US military complex? The answer is an unprecedented submarine production crisis and simple arithmetic. The USN has a global force requirement of 66 nuclear attack submarines, however, the current inventory sits at around 50 boats and is projected to decline to 46 by 2030. This is due to the older Los Angeles-class subs retiring quicker than their replacement Virginia class is being commissioned. US submarine production currently aims for 2 Virginia class, and 1 Colombia class a year, a rate of production not seen since the height of the Cold War. Despite billions of investments in infrastructure, the actual rate of production over the last 5 years has been between 1.2 and 1.3 Virginia class boats per year, a massive shortfall. The crisis has been worsened by the production of the Colombia class receiving prioritisation over the Virginia (as the former carries the US nuclear deterrent), and been compounded by the US agreeing to sell 3-5 Virginia class submarines to Australia, as part of an initial AUKUS deal to prepare the Australians for their future nuclear submarines. These sales will effectively cannibalise the USN’s own fleet at current rates of production. 

This is where the news coming out of HII and Babcock Intl brings the UK into the frame. To counteract the crisis, the USN needs to build 2.3 Virginia class submarines a year. The announcement signifies the outsourcing of the fabrication of large parts of the Virginia class submarine to Babcock in Rosyth, Scotland. This most likely will come in the form of the Virginia class pay-load module being built in the UK as well as large sections of the hull. This module, only found in more modern blocks (V & VI) of the Class, signifies a move back to great power competition for the USN. The cruise missile payload of the submarines is to be increased by a factor of 3, from 12 to 40, a clear response in design to the growing threat of the Chinese Navy. The module is more than a missile carrier though; it also enables the submarine to launch and recover unmanned underwater vehicles. These are key for the protection and monitoring of the gas pipelines and cables that are critical to international infrastructure, extremely topical given the recent sabotage of infrastructure in the Baltic Sea by Russian ships. 

This increase in activity at Rosyth to build sections of USN submarines is part of a remarkable recent renaissance to become one of Europe’s most advanced dockyards. The resurgence began with the construction of the Queen Elizabeth class aircraft carriers and, following that, the ongoing construction of the Royal Navy’s new Type 31 frigates. This new class is currently the favourite to be exported to Denmark and is in the running to be exported to Sweden. Rosyth has already been producing missile tubes for the incoming British Dreadnaught class submarines, a component that is common with the Colombia class, both classes carrying their respective countries' nuclear deterrent (Trident). This served as a proof of concept for the USN that Rosyth was up to the task. 

This deal, moreover, affects the deeper industrial base in the UK. Sheffield Forgemasters is in a select few capable of pouring and forging the gigantic steel components for nuclear submarines. Since being nationalised in 2021 over £400m has been reinvested to re-capitalise the forge and it is already a qualified supplier to pour and forge castings for US submarines. Therefore, when Rosyth is building modules for the Virginia class, it will be from steel poured and forged in Sheffield. In total it is estimated this part of the deal alone will support over 20,000 jobs in the UK. 

This contract is, we should recall, but a stepping stone. The end goal is SSN-AUKUS, which as aforementioned will be operated by both the Royal Navy and Royal Australian Navy. SSN-AUKUS will be a British design incorporating significant US technology, particularly a vertical launch system (VLS) as part of the payload module. Therefore, by building the Virginia class payload module Babcock is gaining experience with the same American VLS technology to be installed in SSN-AUKUS. This not only de-risks the future program, but ensures that the all three navies will be firing from the same pool of missiles. 

In conclusion, this Rosyth deal recognises the hard truth of 21^st century deterrence. No nation, no matter how economically and militarily hegemonic, can maintain a dominant global underwater presence without the pooled resources of other powers. For the United States it is a practical fix for a production bottleneck. For the UK it returns Rosyth and Sheffield to the heart of global naval manufacturing, ensuring the future of British steel and naval engineering. Is this the blueprint for future defence? Shared industrial sovereignty as the price for credible deterrence or does it carry risks that are unforeseen? Only time will tell, but drastic change is happening in defence procurement as the world around us rearms.

Image: Wikimedia Commons/BAE Systems (Royal Navy)

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