California Loves A Billionaire

California’s gubernatorial election grows in intensity and unpredictability every day. The political landscape in one of the wealthiest and most politically influential states in the US seems to be constantly shifting, and this race has been no exception. In fact, it perfectly reflects California’s distinctively eclectic, trend-bucking politics.

It's worth remembering that California's own electoral system contributes to this dynamic. Since 2010, the state has used the Top-Two open primary system, in which all candidates, regardless of party affiliation, compete in the same primary, and only the two with the most votes advance to the general election, even if they belong to the same party. This makes the primary elections a decisive moment, sometimes even more so than the general election itself.

In this context, the political landscape initially appeared complex for the Democrats. The large number of Democratic hopefuls created a clear risk of vote fragmentation, while the more limited Republican options could benefit from this dispersion. There was even the possibility that two Republicans could advance to the general election, an unlikely, but not impossible, scenario in a state that has solidified its position as a Democratic stronghold.

Among the most prominent figures within the Democratic Party were Congressman Eric Swalwell, former progressive Congresswoman Katie Porter, and the 2020 Democratic presidential candidate, billionaire environmental philanthropist Tom Steyer. The electoral math seemed clear: if none of them withdrew, the Democratic vote risked being dangerously split.

However, scandal engulfed Eric Swalwell's campaign overnight, a leading candidate brought low by numerous accusations of sexual assault, which have caused first a precipitous drop in the polls, then his withdrawal from the race, and now his resignation as a congressman. This sudden vacuum has been filled just as quickly by the unlikely Tom Steyer.

The billionaire, who seemed to have no chance of making it into the race, has become one of the frontrunners, even surpassing Republican candidates in the polls. His rise has been as rapid as it has been remarkable.

It is particularly impressive how this new type of outsider, who seven years ago burst onto the scene by effectively buying his way in, competing in the 2020 Democratic presidential primaries for an easy quarter billion, is now positioning himself as one of the Democrats’ top contenders to retain the governorship of the most populous state in the country.

This shift has also taken its toll on other Democratic candidates. Former Congresswoman Katie Porter, a figure in the party's progressive wing, is also laden down with controversies, including accusations regarding her treatment of staff. Steyer has managed to project himself as a distinct alternative, relatively less tarnished and capable of attracting moderate voters.

So California seems set for another surprise. This election could certainly join other historic moments in the state's political history, such as the election of Arnold Schwarzenegger in the memorable recall election of 2003, or Jerry Brown's return to power after nearly three decades out of office. California has demonstrated time and again its willingness to take a chance on unconventional candidates.

Steyer’s case has an additional peculiarity: it represents the potential consolidation of a figure who combines wealth, activism, and a reformist discourse. Moreover, for a maverick candidate he is unusually well qualified, having graduated as valedictorian from Phillips Exeter Academy, subsequently earning his degree in economics and political science (summa cum laude) from Yale, and completing an MBA at Stanford.

Far from merely an intellectually gifted businessman, Steyer has a long history of political skullduggery. One of the Democratic Party's largest donors – championing climate change, democracy, and economic inequality causes – he understands the ins and outs of elite politics without being tainted by public association with the traditional establishment, leaving him particularly appealing to the disenchanted middle.

Of course, his candidacy is no small part disconcerting. The fact that a billionaire aspires to govern the most populous state in the US raises questions about the role of money in politics. Is it a sign of independence from traditional interests or a signal that access to power continues to be concentrated among economic elites? That tension, precisely, is part of the appeal and the challenge of Steyer's candidacy.

It is also true that, at 68, Steyer belongs to a political generation that is still reluctant to make way for fresh blood. However, on a strategic level, his age and experience could work in his favour, projecting him as a figure of stability within a contest marked by uncertainty.

Republican candidates are trying to remain relevant, but the spotlight has clearly shifted to Steyer. The challenge for the businessman will be to carefully navigate his recent lead, particularly heading into the key debates leading up to the June primary, where he will have the opportunity to solidify his position or, conversely, face more intense scrutiny from his rivals.

Tom Steyer represents, in many ways, a novel candidacy. After years orbiting national politics and following his failed presidential bid in 2020, he now seems closer than ever to achieving the position that, perhaps from the beginning, best suited his profile: the governorship of California.

Even so, it would be premature to declare victory. California politics has proven volatile, and the path to the general election remains uncertain, notwithstanding that what seemed improbable just a few months ago has now become a real possibility.

The $2 billion candidate is no longer a minor player in this race. Today, Tom Steyer is on the rise, and thus far California likes what it sees.

Illustration: Will Allen/Europinion