Burnham: Labour’s Knight in Shining Armour?

One of the newest episodes of the revived TV show Spitting Image, a stalwart of 1990s political commentary, made a parody of Home Alone. Instead of Kevin, it was Keir being left in Downing Street all by himself. The goons were replaced by Nigel Farage trying to break in. To be fair, he might have been coming to take a look at his next gaff. 

The episode asked a powerful question. How is it that a Prime Minister, elected with a landslide, is now a mockery, polling as the most unpopular PM in history, and why is it that Downing Street officials (likely his Chief of Staff, Morgan McSweeney) are briefing that Keir Starmer is ready for some good old fashioned punch and judy on the Cabinet Table. This illuminates that Downing Street is rife with insecurity. The PM knows that depending on the results in Scotland in 2026, his defenestration may be forthcoming. 

On top of that, the vultures are circling. The press briefings, seemingly coming out of thin air, accused the Health Secretary, Wes Streeting, of plotting a coup against Starmer. Unfortunately, Like many of Labour’s plans, the briefings backfired. An apparent attempt to quell a revolt and demonstrate strength from No.10, only gave more fuel to a challenge to Starmer.

It is no secret Streeting wants the top job. The issue is that many of his current and former cabinet colleagues are vying for that job as well. Angela Rayner, former Deputy Prime Minister and Housing Secretary is apparently offering cabinet roles for a leadership bid. Some hold her to be the favourite, given that she would be the first Female leader of the Labour Party and an extraordinary testament to social mobility in Britain, having grown up on one of the poorest council estates in the country. Her successor as Deputy PM and Justice Secretary, David Lammy is riding the highs of his promotion, making sure everyone at PMQs knows that he is now Deputy to the PM; just you wait to see him when the man sitting next to him is toppled. On top of that Shabana Mahmood, the Home Secretary is talking tough on immigration in the name of national unity and making this her project, the success of which could be a stepping stone. Finally, the situation has gotten so out of hand that even Britain’s heartthrob, Wallace, under the alias of Ed Miliband, wants to become PM, despite the fact that he lost the 2015 election. As ever, the cabinet is like a real-life episode of traitors.

This is where Andy Burnham comes into the fold. The Mayor of Greater Manchester, has never really come to terms with losing out to Jeremy Corbyn for the Labour Leadership in 2015. Recently, Clive Lewis, the Labour MP for Norwich South and a plotter that Morgan McSweeney completely forgot to mention in his briefings to the press, has gone onto the BBC saying that he is willing to give up his seat for Burnham so that he could depose Starmer. Wisely, Burnham has been holding his cards close to his chest, not using party conferences as a launchpad and being tight-lipped with the press when it comes to openly admitting he’d be open to contesting the leadership. However, Burnham may eye up an even clearer and more local path to Parliament. According to the New Statesmen, Andrew Gwynne, former health minister who resigned after a minor scandal, is alleged to be the man to give up his Manchester seat of Gorton and Denton for Burnham. Gwynne has had the whip withdrawn so, who knows, maybe he’d step aside if Starmer was to be thrown overboard.

The advantages of a Burnham leadership is that as Mayor of Greater Manchester, he has a mandate and is a voice in the North. This distances him from Whitehall. This is a part of the disillusionment amongst voters and part of the appeal to Farage; that those in smart suits in Westminster haven’t the first idea of the struggles of ordinary people. On the other hand, Burnham’s experience at the head of Government Departments such as Health and Culture under former Labour Prime Minister and Chancellor, Gordon Brown, suggests that he could gel well with the Government machine. Unlike Starmer, his first job in the Cabinet would not be Prime Minister. This is useful if Burnham is to demonstrate stability. 

Furthermore, Burnham’s politics are left-leaning. He champions wealth taxes and privatisation of utilities. He champions anti-austerity measures with increased borrowing, critics of which say could have a Truss-esque effect on the pound. Additionally, Burnham believes in Proportional Representation (PR) a voting system that is designed to address the skewed relationship between vote share and seats won in the House of Commons. It would be a tidal shift in British Politics, with First-past-the-post (FPTP) being the voting system since the 19th century. However, PR promises instability, as the vote share makes it more difficult to win majorities and would have had Farage and UKIP as the third largest party as far back as 2015. This demonstrates a radical shift in politics which may reenergise voter participation and crucially, consolidate the left which has drifted towards the Greens and Liberal Democrats since the last General election. This is what Andy Burnham’s supporters are hoping for, a chance to reunite Labour and protect its core base which may have drifted away due to disillusionment with the messy hardlines of Starmer. 

However, the road to No.10 is very long, especially from within the Labour Party. To challenge a Labour Leader, a publicly declared candidate must stand up and 20% of the Parliamentary Labour Party has to stand with them. That adds up to 81 MPs.  Even if Starmer resigns, each candidate needs the support of 20% of MPs on top of either 5% of constituencies or affiliates. That is in regard to the Parliamentary Labour Party. When it comes to the election that follows, candidates will face Party members and affiliated trade union supporters.  Therefore, the Labour leadership process is a deliberately long and drawn out process, which is in Sir Keir Starmer’s favour. The reality is that he must be the one to resign, much like Justin Trudeau resigned as Canadian PM in January of this year, paving the way for Mark Carney to win the Canadian General Election, whilst his Conservative opponent, Pierre Poilievre, lost all of his favourite jabs and attacks. I have no doubt that Burnham has a future in Parliament and has played his cards wisely for now. However, even if Burnham is installed in front of that famous Black door, is he there for damage control, protecting the Labour core as Reform sweeps the country, or will his leadership be a bold left-wing alternative for Britain?

Image: Flickr/World Economic Forum (Faruk Pinjo)

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