Between PANacea & PANdemonium

With the 2027 midterm elections fast approaching, Mexico’s political landscape is already shifting. The National Action Party (PAN), the main opposition force and the only visible representative of the Mexican centre-right, has decided to reinvent itself, both in image and structure. The “blue and white” party now seeks to break with the approach that defined it between 2016 and 2024 — a period marked by alliances with former rivals, first with the now-defunct Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) beginning in 2016, and later also with the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) from 2021 onward.

Its national leader, Jorge Romero Herrera, has made it clear that the PAN will compete alone in the upcoming elections. This is undoubtedly a risky gamble, a coin toss: in much of the country, the PAN lacks the strength to win local or federal elections on its own. Added to this are the internal tensions stemming from the national leadership's decision to impose this strategy without consulting state leaders. In states like Nuevo León, the discontent is evident. The reality is that the PAN remains weakened and its competitive capacity is limited, especially without the support of allied parties.

Today, the PAN is far from being the force it was 25 years ago, when it represented the voice of the opposition and change, ending the PRI's 71-year hegemony. The party must not confuse renewal with isolation. Betting on a "new beginning" does not necessarily imply breaking with the alliances that, however uncomfortable, gave it relevance in the recent past. While the coalition with the PRI was seen at the time as an ideological inconsistency, the truth is that without that partnership, both parties now lack the strength to compete against the hegemonic axis represented by MORENA and its allies.

The "refounding" discourse promoted by the PAN leadership contradicts its own internal practices. Centralism, inflexibility, and the imposition of decisions from the top down reproduce the very vices that the party often criticises in other political forces. In this context, breaking with the PRI and choosing to compete alone puts the PAN at a clear disadvantage against MORENA, which maintains a cohesive electoral machine alongside the PT and the Green Party.

Recent history offers lessons that should not be ignored. Movimiento Ciudadano (MC), a “social democratic” party that once allied itself with the PAN in 2018, subsequently opted for a policy of “no coalitions.” However, this strategy of isolation—which may be attractive in the media but electorally costly—has relegated it to a distant third place in most states. Its only successes—the governorships of Jalisco in 2018 and 2024, and Nuevo León in 2021—are more the exception than the rule. In reality, outside of these strongholds, its political weight is marginal. If the PAN and the PRI had run together in Nuevo León, they would have prevented MC's victory. The lesson is clear: in a system with a dominant party, opposition fragmentation only benefits the hegemon.

The challenge for the PAN shouldn't be to break alliances out of pride or nostalgia, but rather to rebuild a modern identity that makes it relevant to an electorate tired of extremes. Mexican politics is going through a period of profound polarisation, and the opposition lacks a coherent project that unites society beyond simply being “anti-MORENA.” The PAN could fill this void if it manages to renew itself meaningfully, becoming a force for proposals once again, not just for resistance.

However, this transformation will not be possible as long as the party remains trapped between its rhetoric and its practices. Renewal does not mean simply applying a modern face paint or repeating the same old formulas under a new slogan. It means opening up internal debate, listening to its grassroots members, and accepting that the country has changed. Today's new generations do not identify with the old moralising rhetoric or the "good governance" slogans that characterised the PAN of the past. They demand a party that defends freedoms, institutions, the environment, and social rights from a modern and democratic centre-right perspective.

The PAN faces a crossroads that will define its future: it can truly reinvent itself or become lost in its own labyrinth. If it chooses to continue down the path of isolation, it could end up not as an alternative, but as a scattered echo of what the Mexican opposition once was. In politics, as in life, it is not enough to say that one is starting over; one must demonstrate that one has learned from past mistakes.

The risk is clear. If the PAN turns its attempt at independence into an exercise in political arrogance, it will lose the opportunity to lead a viable and pluralistic opposition. If, on the other hand, it manages to build a project with its own identity, but open to dialogue with the PRI or even MC, it could recover the role it once held: that of a responsible counterweight to power.

Because in today's Mexico, the line between success and failure is thinner than ever. On that uncertain border, the future of the opposition—and perhaps of democracy itself—is at stake.

Image: Wikimedia Commons/Zscout370

Licence: public domain.

No image changes made.