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Trump: Can He Win in 2024?

If Donald Trump wins the 2024 presidential election, he could be the first US President ever to rule from prison.


This is quite a scary proposition. Trump is already the first president to be criminally charged – not just once, but across four indictments. Those four are Trump’s conspiracy to steal votes in the 2020 election to win Georgia; false accounting to cover up $130,000 in hush money paid to pornstar Stormy Daniels; illegally hoarding classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago estate; and initiating violence by repeatedly and falsely claiming he had won the 2020 election.


That’s a damning list of crimes. Conspirator, pornstar, hoarder, violence sounds like a Mafia rendition of the infamous film Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy. Imagine adding ‘prisoner’ to that catastrophic cocktail.


None of this should bode well for a bloke trying to become President of the United States – theoretically the most powerful person in the world. However, Americans appear to be skimming over the details of Trump’s legal problems – and that spells trouble for America, the world, the universe and beyond.


Winning the Republican candidacy is the first step on the long old road to November 2024. For a potential criminal, however, Trump is taking everything in his stride. He stormed to victory in Iowa, winning 51% of the vote – miles ahead of Ron DeSantis on 21% and Nikki Haley on 19%. And now he’s been declared the victor in New Hampshire, winning 54% to Haley’s 43%.


It doesn’t matter that poor old Nikki Haley claims the race is still not over yet. It is. Trump has all but won the Republican nomination and there’s nothing anyone can do about it. New Hampshire was supposed to be Haley’s moment to shine as Trump’s main challenger. Instead, she drowned like a pig in the sea – in a battle between a very fake-tanned whale and a minnow, she was well and truly crushed.


Why does Trump have such a stronghold of the Republican Party? The truth is, I don’t know. He’s extremely dislikeable, has a criminal record longer than Al Capone’s and suggested injecting bleach could treat Covid-19. Everyone on the outside seems to see right through Trump’s charade, but Americans – the people who actually decide the election – appear persuaded by his arguments.


And here we come to the crucial flip side. Whatever you think of Trump’s morals, beliefs and loathsome personality, he is a master at tapping into people’s fears – in the Republican Party and beyond. Building a wall along the border with Mexico was extremely controversial, but Americans are dealing with the exact mass immigration picture that he paints.


In September 2023, Chicago signed a $29.3 million contract for temporary migrant housing – which broadly translates to immigrants living in tents. Chicago is in Illinois, which is a Democrat stronghold. How would you feel if thousands of tents started popping up in your neighbourhood? I don’t think anyone could say they’d welcome unhappy foreign campers armed with a sea of flimsy nylon, tins of baked beans and campfire sing-songs.


As a result of scenes like this, many Democrats are crossing the floor and turning into arch-Trumpists. That’s a massive blow for Biden because if his arthritic hands can barely cling onto lifelong Democrat-or-die voters, what chance does he have of turning the Republican tide in crucial swing states like Georgia, Michigan and Florida?


The answer is no chance. Because Trump has both sides covered: he’s winning the votes of loyal Democrats and he’s got the body organs of diehard Republicans signed, sealed and delivered to his Mar-a-Lago mansion.


Republicans in rural America hate Biden’s action on gun control, including passing legislation to impose tougher checks on buyers in 2022 – the most significant US gun control bill in nearly 30 years. Gun control for American citizens whilst Biden continues to fuel Israel’s efforts in the Gaza conflict sounds unyieldingly hypocritical to a gun-wielding Texan. It all adds up to Trump’s notion of a Stalinist state imposing excessive controls on previously free American citizens – whilst turning a blind eye to migrants flooding in through the back door.


And don’t forget the fact that – by nearly all Americans – President Biden is increasingly becoming an even sleepier ‘sleepy Joe’. Falling over on stage and fumbling through speeches is not a good look for a politician hoping to galvanise the nation.


Just look at the contrast between Trump’s dynamism and Biden, who could evoke a Windows PC shutting down noise at any moment. Trump is storming the Republican candidacy and juggling court cases at the same time. Meanwhile, Biden will soon be hobbling onto the stage bent over a Zimmer frame and employing White House staff to help him eat his breakfast. Age should be no barrier but, in a job as tiring and significant as being US President, it undoubtedly has its problems.


Don’t get me wrong – Trump is no spring chicken at 77, meaning he only has a few years on Biden at 81. But Trump’s character drives him through. He cuts through the cow pat, straight to issues right at the epicentre of American hearts.


This fact is demonstrated no clearer than by Trump’s extremely simple, yet extremely poignant slogan: America First. In a world where climate commitments, Middle Eastern wars, artificial intelligence and Elon Musk are determining everything, putting America first is obviously going to be attractive. And that attraction is being felt by Republicans who are losing their guns and lost their factory jobs in the Rust Belt, and by Democrats whose cities are inundated with immigrants.


So, according to Americans, Trump is a populist who is trying to bring back the good ol’ days. The fact he’s been charged with criminal offences only adds to his story of being punished by elites with an agenda.


Commentators are claiming only the courts can stop Trump now. They’re wrong. Nobody can stop Trump. By hook or, quite literally, by crook if he has to govern from a prison cell, Donald Trump will win the 2024 US Presidential Election.

Image: Reuters/via The BBC






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