Jenrick & Co's Expulsions Are A Golden Opportunity

Earlier this month, Robert Jenrick was abruptly sacked by Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch after screenshots of the Shadow Secretary of State for Justice’s resignation speech were sent to senior figures in Badenoch’s office. Memories of the infighting that characterised the latter years of the previous Conservative government were immediately evoked, a period in which Tory MPs routinely plotted against their leaders, forgetting their duties to the public to instead resemble a poorly written soap opera.

But this should not be seen in the same light as previous Tory chaos. Instead, this moment could perhaps provide the springboard for a Conservative revival if Badenoch chooses to seize it. Jenrick represented so much of what has gone wrong with the Conservatives. From his approval of a £1 billion luxury housing development as a favour to a Conservative party donor, to comments about not “seeing a white face” during his trip to Birmingham, this is a politician who has embodied the recent dishonesty and inflammatory rhetoric of the Tories.

For all the media focus on Nigel Farage and Reform, in the 2024 general election Labour and the Liberal Democrats won a combined 45.9% of the public vote, with the Conservatives taking 23.7% of the vote share. Polling suggests if an election were to be held tomorrow, Reform would far outperform their 14.3% of the vote, but the next general election remains three-and-a-half years away. Any current polling cannot yet be taken as a reliable indicator of who will next be through the doors of No.10 Downing Street.

Rather than attempting to “out-Reform” Reform, the Conservatives should be focusing on those voters who abandoned them due to their dishonesty, economic mismanagement and internal melodramas. It is those who moved to Labour and the Lib Dems who are most likely to return, not those who have been captured by Farage’s divisive, populist rhetoric. 

In fact, the expulsion of Jenrick provides an opportunity for Badenoch to finally define her Conservative party as one which stands for calm, sensible debate. The Tories will always differ from Labour in regards to their economic thinking, but the rise of populism in the West should align both parties in their moral outlook. The centre-right and centre-left should both appeal for a return to civility in political discourse, setting the example to our media which often revels in the gossip that emanates from Westminster and fans the flames of populism through its fascination with figures like Farage. Both should stand up for the “rules-based international order” that the likes of Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump so blatantly disregard. And both should prioritise long-term objectives, even if that means unpopular decisions in the short-term.

Presently, Trump dominates almost all political and media discussion, so it is perhaps unsurprising that his brand of politics has pervaded into other nations, including the UK. But  polling has consistently shown that Britons have an overwhelmingly negative view of the U.S. President, with a recent YouGov poll finding that 77% view him “unfavourably”. Despite Jenrick and Farage’s scapegoating of immigrants and insistence that “Britain is broken” (a self-hatred which seems the defining theme of Tory defectors, see Braverman’s defection), evidence is lacking that the majority of voters subscribe to Trump’s style of aggressive nationalism.

Assuming Trump abides by the constitution, in just under three years he will be out of the White House for good, perhaps paving the way for a return to some sort of normality in U.S. and world politics. By this point, Keir Starmer should still be Prime Minister, with the next U.K general election scheduled for 15th August 2029 at the latest.

Therefore, Badenoch does not need to appease Trump. In fact, as Leader of the Opposition, she is in the unique position of receiving enough media spotlight to reach a wide audience with her views, while needing to worry little about what Trump thinks of her, unlike Starmer. She could capitalise on Britons’ views of Trump to criticise him more openly and set the Conservatives apart from the Trumpian politics of the new Right, emphasising that her party won’t follow a similar political philosophy.

As happens with all incumbent governments, the public have begun to lose faith in Labour’s policies, raising the likelihood that by 2029, there will be a desire for a different approach. Reform are attempting to pounce on this, by simultaneously proposing both tax cuts and increased welfare spending, despite the paradox this creates. As the election approaches, scrutiny will increase on the economic illogicity of this, presenting a space for the Conservatives to re-fill as the party voters trust on the economy. There is already evidence this view is reemerging.

And, as I’ve previously touched on, there is a drastic need for longer-term thinking and patience in politics. Populists like Farage will always favour the short-term solution which brings about most instant popularity, whereas the Conservatives were traditionally associated with longer-term planning, through fiscal restraint.

Evidence that Badenoch might opt to dial down the political temperature is lacking. She has previously revelled in wading into the “culture wars”, has been categorical about her desire to pull Britain out of the ECHR, and took Trump’s side after his remarks on the Chagos Islands deal. But the prospect of governing usually pulls political leaders towards the centre and Badenoch should sense the recent defections to Reform as an opportunity to clean up the Conservative party and begin to fertilise the argument that they have changed since their previous stint in government.

As the leader of one of the UK’s two traditionally dominant political parties, there is a responsibility to restore a sense of moral responsibility and balanced, rational dialogue to our political debate. The age of Trumpian politics might seem at its height, but as electorates realise that populist policies and immigrant-bashing do not fix the economy and improve their lives, the appetite for a return to a calmer politics might grow.

Image: Flickr/The Conservative Party (Edward Massey/CCHQ)

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