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How to rig an election
All politicians fear the lame-duck period of their tenure. That period of time when they have lost all actual power but retain the nominal positions. In America, this can happen after a midterm election. The increase in the number of seats going to the party opposite the government certainly stalls all further attempts at policy. And, if you happen to routinely (allegedly) break the law as President, they may even greenlight investigations, which may lead to impeachment, or even removal from power! This cannot be allowed to happen.
This is the situation Donald Trump is in. He won the 2024 election, avoiding prison time and consequences for his numerous other indictments, not least the accusations of inciting an insurrection on 6 January 2021, the civil case for which was dismissed after his victory. However, this hasn't solved his other legal headaches, such as the allegations of him working with “his closest friend” Jeffrey Epstein (a large proportion of the Epstein Files are still withheld by Trump’s government), or the accusations of insider trading, cash for pardons, accepting illegal foreign donations, enriching himself off the office to the tune of $3B, knowingly turning a blind eye to election interference, and a crypto pump-and-dump scheme. The list seems endless.
And Trump cannot rely on his traditional popularity. Despite his claims that his approval ratings sit at 60%, since January of 2024, they have fallen to 31%, lower than Joe Biden’s ever were. Even the old-reliable culture-war platitudes are slipping; Trump likes to repeat that he doesn’t “want to see boys in girls’ sports”, signing an executive order which affects fewer than ten athletes in the country. Though this is not a popular culture-war issue, 92% of Democrats, 76% of Republicans, and 87% of Independents are in favour of transgender people receiving equal rights and protections. Additionally, Trump’s usual anti-immigrant rhetoric is falling flat as Immigrations Customs and Enforcement (ICE) has routinely been accused of murdering American citizens whilst denying the constitutional right to due process, both contributing to 65% of respondents in a recent poll claiming ‘ICE has gone too far’.
So, winning the midterms legitimately looks unlikely, but losing is absolutely not an option. So, what are the illegitimate means? Fortunately for Trump, the playbook already exists. It has been created by countless despots and leaders, and he has proven his own familiarity with it.
It starts with disenfranchising voters – ensuring that only the most passionate can vote, which often rewards more fervent ideologies (e.g., MAGA). The primary route this can be done in the United States is through purging voter rolls, which is the act of removing registered voters from the roll, and voter ID laws (which are, in effect, a poll tax banned under the 24th Amendment). The goal is to make it as difficult as possible for people to vote so as to disillusion or exhaust potential swing voters. Meanwhile, with a cult of personality, it is fairly easy to motivate your own supporters to endure the worst of it. This is where the SAVE Act comes in, requiring a birth certificate or passport to vote (which means married women will face disenfranchisement for having a different last name). In addition, those IDs cost $7-$34 for a birth certificate, or $165 for a passport, both of which have long waiting times, allowing for a bureaucratic break in more left-leaning areas.
Trump is far from the first American President to attempt disenfranchisement. It was a common strategy when women first got the vote, with the aforementioned poll tax. Or diluting minority votes within districts that are predominantly pro-state – gerrymandering districts in order to win, even without a popular vote, something which is very predominant in red states. One great way to disenfranchise voters is to make it illegal for certain types of criminals to vote, then disproportionately charge the kind of people you don’t want voting.
Perhaps that won’t work to win the election. Perhaps Trump is just too controversial, so it causes greater turnout (higher than previous midterms). Perhaps only a few states have enacted voter ID laws and purged voter rolls. We need certainty. Why not try to alter votes during or after they’ve been submitted? Whilst online videos (from 2018) claim that voting machines have been ‘vote switching’, there’s no evidence to support that claim. Instead, it is far more common to throw out contrarian votes – which Trump has been frequently attempting, citing a belief that they are ‘non-citizens’. Meanwhile, in Alaska, Trump is attempting to remove the Democratic Party candidate and have her criminally charged. And, once the result comes forth, Trump and his allies can attempt to change the results, as he did in 2020 when he phoned the Georgia Secretary of State demanding 11,000 votes.
While all this is going on, it is important to sow the seeds of doubt that the election could be stolen. This would mean that, should Trump lose, he could just claim that the election was rigged (despite being in control of it) and that it should be ignored or overturned. “Voter fraud is rampant!” is a great catchphrase. It suggests the need for broad federal intervention. Seize votes and “check” them by removing “dodgy” votes. Trump particularly targets early and mail-in voting, which is commonly used by Trump’s own base, and Trump himself.
Since Trump’s claims in 2020, “stolen election” rhetoric has become very popular, with Bolsonaro and Netanyahu making similar claims recently. This final play is effectively the only card Trump has left: prevent the law from working and force the desired result. Post-Truth populists are, in effect, attempting to gain public consent to overturn the rule of law and enact their own will. All democratic governments derive power from the consent of the electorate, and this type of coup requires a large, willing base to back the removal of law. Trump has previously attempted such a coup on 6 January 2021, has since pardoned insurrectionists, and is likely to attempt this again on 3 January 2027, when the midterms are set to be ratified. It is entirely feasible that Trump and the MAGA movement will prevent newly elected Democrats from taking their seats within Congress and will overturn the rule of law to ensure a Republican majority.
American democracy is at stake with a playbook with which Donald Trump has become overly familiar. As it stands, he and his supporters control all levers of power within the United States federal government (executive, legislative, and judicial branches), so for the party to maintain control, it would be relatively easy to stage that particular coup.
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