Burnham Or Bust

It is becoming increasingly apparent that Keir Starmer’s dismal time in office is coming to an end. Following historic losses in this month’s local elections, more than 90 Labour MPs have publicly called for his resignation and four ministers have resigned thus far. Wes Streeting has resigned as Health Secretary. Andy Burnham is getting ready.

As Greater Manchester Mayor, the longtime favourite to replace Starmer still needs to get approval to stand in Josh Simons’ Makerfield seat, though Starmer has undertaken not to stopper him this time round. Of course he then must win a by-election before he can topple Starmer. When one looks at the other candidates for Number 10, however, there is every reason for Labour to wait for him to return to Westminster. 

Andy Burnham is possibly the only senior British politician with a positive approval rating, immensely popular in Manchester and the North; Labour heartlands where they happen to be losing votes. He is seen as a champion of the North, having fought Manchester’s corner during Covid, largely unassociated with Westminster. A fresh face, untarnished by Starmer’s reviled government, is the only thing that may tempt those who have turned away. 

Where Labour has lost since 2024, the Greens, Lib Dems and nationalist parties have gained. This was borne out in their loss to the Greens in Gorton and Denton in February, where Burnham was prevented from standing. Labour also lost to nationalists in Scotland and Wales, losing power in the latter for the first time in more than a century. This comes after the government has unashamedly appealed to the right, unveiling a sprawling anti-immigration programme in November. But the fact is, at this juncture, Conservative and Reform voters are not considering Labour. Having taken for granted their usual voter base, Labour is bleeding votes to parties to their left. The good news is that, with politics so fragmented, they need only to claw back 5-10 points in the polls to become competitive again. Burnham is a figure of the left who may well give the disillusioned a reason to look again. 

One thing that can be said for Burnham that cannot be for Starmer, for example, is that he has direction, ‘Manchesterism,’ what he calls ‘business-friendly socialism,’ gives more power to local authorities. This is particularly appealing in Britain right now as many turning to populist parties mention the decline of the high street among their key concerns. Burnham’s record in Manchester shows that he has cogent answers to this concern. 

One question mark for Burnham has been over his declaration that Britain should not be ‘in hock to the bond markets.’ This has spooked the markets slightly, but the market favours continuity, which Labour typifies in today’s Westminster landscape. 

Essentially, Andy Burnham is everything Streeting is not.

Streeting is seen as one of the government’s most effective communicators and is therefore regularly wheeled out to defend it, he is an outward-facing figure of Starmer’s government who is unlikely to be welcomed by the public. Left-leaning voters may be even less likely to vote for Streeting than Starmer. This combined with his connection to Lord Mandelson potentially makes Streeting electoral poison for Labour. It appears that the PLP agrees. It remains to be seen if Streeting’s leadership bid materialises, but the sense is solidifying that he doesn’t have the numbers among MPs. 

If Streeting were to launch this bid, Burnham’s backers may have to find another soft-left candidate to back should time run out. Unfortunately pickings are slim. 

Angela Rayner is heavily touted for a leadership bid. While potentially more amenable to left-leaning voters, Rayner’s net popularity is a whopping -33. She resigned from the cabinet in September after failure to pay full stamp duty on her second home. This has not gone down well with a public struggling to pay the bills. While cleared of deliberate wrongdoing, this is unlikely to change her perception in the public eye. Given the unprecedented vitriol faced by Starmer, Rayner’s unpopularity is insurmountable. 

Then there is Ed Miliband. If the Labour Party chooses a man the British public has already rejected then perhaps it is not worth saving, although his designs may be more on No. 11. 

Burnham’s road to Downing Street is long. Reform will certainly have their sights on the Makerfield by-election. If he makes it to Westminster though, he may well be Labour’s only hope. The most popular politician in Britain is the only man who might save a chronically unpopular government.

Image: Flickr/World Economic Forum (Faruk Pinjo)

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