Brazil's 2026 Election: Lula, Flávio Bolsonaro, and the Weaponisation of Justice

In just a few months, elections will be held in Brazil to decide the political future of the country. On October 4, millions of Brazilians will head to the polls to elect their new President. While there is a plethora of political candidates, two names stand out. The current President of Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, commonly known as Lula, and the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, Flávio Nantes Bolsonaro, who serves as a Senator for Rio de Janeiro. Both men battle for the same political stance; populism. However, it seems that this time the rivalry between liberal and conservative populism will not be about persuading the masses, but it will be about shutting down your opponent.

Flávio Bolsonaro will have to face the scandal-plagued Bolsonaro dynasty he inherited from his father, which is gleefully weaponised by the liberals. On the other hand, Lula will have to face accusations of corruption and shameless lawfare from his right-wing rivals. Democracy plays a disturbingly secondary role in the equation. Brazil is one of the most important economic and political powerhouses in South America. If the October elections prove that democracy is merely an ancient Greek word instead of an actual respected system of governance, a domino effect might be triggered on a worldwide scale. If that sounds macabre and far-fetched, one must contemplate how far democracy can thrive while excusing undemocratic means. Can this form of democracy be truly justified and cherished?

The Political Trials

In September 2025, the Brazilian Federal Supreme Court (STF) convicted and sentenced former President Jair Bolsonaro for his attempted coup, trying to consolidate power over the established democratic institutions. Even though it might seem like a clear case of crime and punishment, the background of this conviction appears to be a bit more complicated. For context, in 2018, Lula was sentenced to nine years and six months in prison after he was found guilty on charges of corruption and money laundering. The most popular President in the history of Brazil was under investigation linking him to the oil giant Petrobras and the construction company OAS, in which Lula allegedly received close to $600,000 in bribes. However, in 2019, the STF nullified the decision citing violations of procedural moves made by a judge without jurisdiction. Lula was set free after serving only 18 months in prison. His supporters were ecstatic, calling for unfair treatment that resembled a witch hunt. But was true justice served? 

According to Jair Bolsonaro, no. That was the reason behind the 2023 events that led to his attack against the Brazilian government and his subsequent arrest. However, in the case of Bolsonaro, the STF did not seem to have the same lenient approach that it adopted with Lula. Five judges decided the fate of Jair Bolsonaro, who was ultimately sentenced to 27 years in prison on charges of attempted criminal conspiracy, an attempted coup d’etat and the attempted abolition of the democratic rule of law. As straightforward as this case seems, there are more questions than answers for this trial. The Prosecutor-General filed the charges against Bolsonaro in front of a first panel of judges without moving the case in front of a full bench. Why didn’t the rule of law apply to this case? Why was he judged so hastily? There is a wave of complaints and attempts to pass the necessary bills from right-wing politicians in order to have the decision nullified. It is important to point out that in the case of Lula back in 2018, the SFT nullified his case arguing for absence of competence. However, this time it seems that justice was blind.

Judge and Inquisitor

An important figure in this trial is Alexandre de Moraes. Moraes became infamous in 2024 when he began a personal feud against Elon Musk and his social media platform X over free speech, misinformation and suspension of several accounts of X. Moraes justified this action by pointing out that several accounts based in Brazil cited and encouraged posts filled with extremism and disinformation. Musk himself characterised Moraes as a dictator and tyrant. Tyrant may seem like a harsh characterisation, but it wouldn’t be far from the truth if we called Moraes an inquisitor. He had authorised strict preventive and pre-trial detentions for several individuals, including the removal of government officials, strict content control of media channels and banning of social media accounts. On top of all those actions, in the case against Bolsonaro, Moraes operated with clear political biases, personally supervising parts of the investigations and leading the criminal trials. It got so out of control that the United States government intervened and imposed sanctions against Moraes, accusing him of suppressing freedom of expression and issuing illegal pre-trial detentions. Washington also imposed 50% tariffs on imported goods from Brazil. Nevertheless, President Lula seems to ignore the increased concentration of judicial power that Moraes has since it is for his benefit. Instead, he focuses on public relations battles against President Donald Trump. 

In a recent article Lula penned for the Washington Post, he accused President Trump of using unfounded claims to justify the tariffs, while also being politically motivated against him. It is a well known fact that Donald Trump is not the most reliable political figure when it comes to presenting evidence and actual facts to justify his actions. With that being said, regardless of Trump’s motivation, his attack against Lula and the Brazilian Supreme Court was certainly justified. Freedom of expression is a delicate matter, yet it is a necessary tool in a functioning democracy. Lula and his supporters had no problem expressing their dissatisfaction when he was sentenced to prison, and there was no issue when the Supreme Court decided to nullify its decision against him. It is very convenient that Lula focuses on his feud with Donald Trump as this covers up the scandal with judge Moraes who didn't seem to bother shutting down voices of dissent that were supportive of President Lula. Rules for thee, but not for me.

The Road to October

Flávio Bolsonaro faces Lula in a tight race for the presidency of Brazil. His family’s name is on the line and all the efforts seem to point out to his father Jair who despite being on house arrest is still the main character in this political saga. Flávio lacks the flamboyant populist style of his father but what he doesn't lack is allies in the South American continent. It is clear to me that the support of other right-wing leaders will be essential to increase the probability of Flávio winning the elections and influence the STF to nullify the decision against his father. In a recent convention in Brazil, Argentinian President Javier Milei, endorsed Flávio Bolsonaro and without naming explicitly Lula and Moraes, insulted both of them by calling them names such as convict, thief and bald trash. Brazil subsequently recalled the Argentinian ambassador, while President Lula said that he will continue to lead without anyone’s interference. A recent poll, puts Lula ahead of Bolsonaro in the polls by 47% to 44%. Although it is still too early to have a clear winner, it is evident that Jair Bolsonaro’s stunt in 2023 and his conviction grants Lula an edge. On the other hand, this same convention might give the lead to Bolsonaro’s son in a few months. In my view, who would be the winner of these elections is irrelevant. The important thing that we must focus on is how much the notion of democracy is going to be affected. Both candidates have an unreliable political past. Criminal convictions, abuse of authority and family members that threatened the rule of law. These elections are not about the people and what they can do to help millions of Brazilians who struggle with poverty, unemployment and the increased rate of criminality that hunts the country. Lula and Bolsonaro are two sides of the same coin. One left one right, one blue one red but both corrupt and unable to run for office in a politically ethical way. The elections in October would be a reminder of how twisted can the word democracy become, especially when the matter of holding to a political power is on the line. We are witnessing demagoguery actions from both sides which can only result in a populist ochlocracy that focuses on retaliation under the cover of a democratic process.     

Illustrations: Will Allen/Europinion