AfD Wins Saxony-Anhalt: Can the Far-Right Form a Government

The far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) achieved a historic victory in the regional elections held in the German federal state of Saxony-Anhalt on September 6. The party received 43.8% of the preliminary vote and won 39 seats in the 83-seat state parliament. With this result, AfD not only became the undisputed winner of the election but also increased its support by 23% compared to the 2021 election. This is the party’s best result ever in an election in any German state. 

AfD’s success in Saxony-Anhalt is particularly significant because the party has gradually been gaining strength in former East German states in recent years.  Germany’s domestic intelligence service classified the AfD charter in Saxony-Anhalt as a confirmed right-wing extremist organisation. 

The AfD’s Victory is Short of Enough Votes to Form a Government

The 83-seat state parliament requires 42 seats for an absolute majority. The AfD won 39 seats and is three seats short of forming a government independently. The CDU, which came in second and is led by the incumbent Minister-President, Sven Schulze, received 17.2% of the preliminary vote and won 15 seats. The SPD, the Greens and Die Linke each won eight seats, while the BSW managed to enter the parliament with five seats.

As a result, the election produced an unusual distribution of power: AfD  - 39, CDU - 15, SPD - 8, Greens - 8, Die Linke - 8, and BSW - 5 seats. This means that AfD has exactly as many seats as the CDU, SPD, Greens, and Die Linke combined - 39. This is why, after the election, the main question is no longer who won, but rather which party will secure 42 votes to elect the Minister-President.

Two main candidates emerged after the election: AfD leader Ulrich Siegmund and the incumbent CDU Minister-President Sven Schulze. However, neither of them currently has the required 42 votes.

The first sitting of the new Landtag must take place no later than 30 days after the election. Therefore, by October 6 at the latest. After that, parliament must elect a Minister-President, who in turn appoints ministers and forms the state government. Currently, four scenarios exist for how the results in Saxony-Anhalt will unfold.

The First Scenario - A Repeat of the Thuringian Model 

One of the most interesting possibilities could be repeating the experience of the 2024 election in Thuringia. In Thuringia, the AfD also came first in 2024 with 32.8% of the vote but could not form a government independently. Other parties ruled out forming a coalition with the AfD, and ultimately the CDU, BSW and SPD formed the so-called ‘Blackberry Coalition.’ Together, the three parties held 44 seats in the 88-seat state parliament, where an absolute majority requires 45 votes.

The additional support became possible through Die Linke. However, Die Linke did not officially join the coalition. According to the CDU’s 2018 combined resolution, the party rules out any coalition with either the AfD or Die Linke, to clearly position itself as a democratic centre party. A so-called ‘3+1’ format was formed between the CDU, BSW and SPD. Die Linke did not join the government, but was expected to hold regular consultations with the governing parties, while agreements on specific issues remained possible. The ‘3+1’ format made it possible to stabilise a minority government. 

A similar scenario is theoretically possible in Saxony-Anhalt as well. The CDU, SPD, Greens and Die Linke together hold 39 seats. That is the same number as the AfD. Therefore, if these four parties agree to support a government, they would effectively neutralise AfD’s parliamentary advantage. 

The Second Scenario - A BSW-Backed Independent Minister-President 

An agreement solely between the CDU, SPD, Greens and Die Linke would not be sufficient to secure a 42-vote majority. This is precisely why the BSW’s five seats have become particularly significant after the election. 

Before the election, the BSW leaders ruled out forming a coalition with AfD, but did not rule out certain forms of cooperation with the far-right party, including the possible allocation of ministerial positions to AfD. Under this scenario, even three votes from BSW’s five seats would have been sufficient. 

However, the BSW’s position changed after the election. According to the party’s co-chair, Amira Mohamed Ali, BSW will support neither the CDU candidate, Sven Schulze, nor the AfD candidate, Ulrich Siegmund, and instead supports a third path: the election of an independent, non-partisan Minister-President.

Accordingly, BSW’s five seats could prove decisive in the process of forming a government. The party’s final position will determine whether the CDU will form a government or whether the AfD will have an opportunity to enter government. 

The Third Scenario - A Third Round and a Change in the Majority Requirement 

The Constitution of Saxony-Anhalt leaves open another possibility. In the first round of the election of the Minister-President, a candidate requires a majority of the members of the state parliament - in Saxony-Anhalt, 42 votes. If this cannot be achieved, a second round of voting takes place within seven days. If no majority is secured in the second attempt, parliament must decide whether to end its electoral term prematurely. If the state parliament’s dissolution is not approved, a third round will be held. At this stage, securing 42 votes is no longer necessary - the candidate who receives the highest number of votes becomes Minister-President. 

The Fourth Scenario - Dissolution of Parliament and Early Elections 

If the first two attempts to elect a Minister-President fail, the Landtag has another option: to end its electoral term prematurely and dissolve itself. Parliament must decide within 14 days after a second unsuccessful round. If most deputies support parliament’s dissolution, the third round will not take place, and the state will prepare for new regional elections. 

This option is likely given the previous cooperation between the CDU and Die Linke in forming a government and the fact that the BSW’s position is not yet known precisely. 

The significance of this election extends beyond Saxony-Anhalt. Elections will be held in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin on September 20, making Saxony-Anhalt’s result an important political boost for the AfD. 

If the AfD succeeds in forming a government in Saxony-Anhalt, it would not be a merely symbolic victory for the party. Genuine participation in government would allow the party to partially break its political isolation, present itself as a force ready to govern, and strengthen the mobilisation of potential voters. In such a scenario, Saxony-Anhalt could become a platform for AfD’s future electoral successes. 

Image: Wikimedia Commons/Mark Jones

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