Reform UK Upsets Political Order in Local Elections

LONDON, United Kingdom - 3 May 2025

In an extraordinary political upset, Reform UK has emerged as the dominant force in England’s 2025 local elections, securing sweeping gains across the country and profoundly unsettling Britain’s traditional two-party system. The results, coupled with bombshell national vote share estimates, suggest that Nigel Farage’s insurgent populist party could win a majority in a future general election — a scenario now being seriously entertained by major broadcasters including Sky News and the BBC.

Reform UK won 677 council seats and took control of 10 county councils — including Derbyshire, Doncaster, Durham, Kent, Lancashire, Lincolsnhire, North Northamptonshire, West Northamptonshire, Nottinghamshire, and Staffordshire.

In Kent, for instance, Reform UK overturned a solid Conservative majority to take overall control, winning 51 of 81 seats. A similar story unfolded in Staffordshire, where Reform UK captured 45 of 62 seats, taking control from the Conservatives, who were reduced to just 11 seats.

The party also won its first parliamentary seat in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election, where it narrowly defeated Labour by six votes — a result that, while slim, is symbolically potent.

Additionally, Reform UK performed strongly in the mayoral elections, winning in Greater Lincolnshire, Hull and East Yorkshire, and coming second in North Tyneside, Doncaster, West of England, and Cambridgeshire & Peterborough. Nigel Farage celebrated the results as a "unprecedented" and proclaimed that the era of two-party dominance is over.

Labour lost Durham and Lancashire to Reform, despite having held control of Durham for over a century. The party’s estimated national vote share was 20%, down from 29% in the 2023 locals. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, while maintaining a healthy majority in Parliament, now faces growing unrest within his party ranks.

Starmer responded cautiously, stating:

"Most Prime Ministers would respond to these local elections with the same old excuses. They’d blame low turnout or say this is just what happens “mid-term”. I’m not going to do that. My response is simple: I get it. "When we came into government last year, I said there was no magic wand that would fix things overnight and that we would only get there through hard graft...Am I satisfied with where we are? Not even close. I am acutely aware that people aren’t yet feeling the benefits. That’s what they told us last night. Until they do, I will wake up every morning determined to go further and faster."

The Conservative Party endured one of the worst nights in its history, losing 676 council seats and winning control of no councils for the first time since 1995. Its national vote share fell to 15%, the lowest since records began. The party was nearly wiped out in parts of southern England it once dominated, including Surrey, Hampshire, and West Sussex, where many voters defected to Reform or stayed home.

Party leader Kemi Badenoch, who succeeded Rishi Sunak after the 2024 general election defeat, described the results as a “bloodbath,” but said she would not step down.

Both Sky News and the BBC published modelled national vote share estimates based on the local results — and both suggest a general election held today could be won outright by Reform UK.

• Sky News: Reform UK 32%, Labour 19%, Conservatives 18%, Lib Dems 14%

• BBC: Reform UK 30%, Labour 20%, Conservatives 15%, Lib Dems 12%

  
  

If these vote shares were replicated nationally, Farage’s party could win a working parliamentary majority under the First Past the Post system. While this would depend on geographic distribution of support and turnout, the projections stunned political analysts.

There is ongoing debate as to whether the results mark a permanent political realignment or a particularly strong protest vote. Reform UK has limited party infrastructure and remains heavily reliant on Farage’s personal popularity. Yet its performance in both local government and parliamentary contests suggests that its appeal has moved beyond protest into more durable support.

For the first time in generations, British politics may be entering a true three-party era — but one in which the newest entrant is, for now, in the ascendant.

Image: Nigel Farage/X

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